Asset Allocation Reports

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Real Income versus the Wealth Effect; What is Driving Consumption? (January 24, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One of the debates within economics is whether consumption is driven by income or wealth.  The outcome of this debate is important for policymakers; if the goal of policy is lifting or constraining growth, knowing which factor is more important to consumption is critical.  For example, if the… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We anticipate that economic growth will continue, but at a more modest pace than last year, and the potential for a recession within our three-year forecast period remains low. The Fed’s prior intransigence on inflation has yielded to a more hawkish stance leading to expectations for the curtailment… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Path of Monetary Policy (January 10, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our expectation of no policy rate hikes this year is an out-of-consensus call in our 2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails.  There are a couple of factors that suggest rate hikes this year.  First, financial markets have factored in rate hikes.  Fed funds futures suggest a greater… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly – What’s Causing the Yield Curve to Flatten? (December 17, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF A note to readers: The Asset Allocation Weekly will go on holiday hiatus following today’s report and return as a bi-weekly publication, now on Mondays, beginning January 10, 2022.  From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, we wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!  See… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly – The Omicron Problem (December 10, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Over the Thanksgiving holiday, news broke that a new variant of COVID-19 had been isolated in South Africa.  This new variant has an usually high number of mutations, which increases the likelihood that current immunity will be compromised.  In other words, prior infection or inoculation will probably be… Read More »

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