Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a bi-weekly basis, updating the piece every other Monday.
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Wars, Price Shocks, and Inventories (April 13, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since the launch of the US-Israeli war against Iran on February 28, if there’s been one dramatic feature, it’s that the conflict and official statements about it have shifted dramatically almost on a daily basis. By the time this report is published, the war could be going in a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Strategic Petroleum Reserve: A Primer (March 30, 2026)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On March 11, the International Energy Agency announced a coordinated draw of 400 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) System maintained by the organization’s member countries. Understanding the reasoning behind this decision requires an examination of the economics of inventory. This analysis will help the reader understand that… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Are Long-Term Treasurys No Longer a Safe Haven? (March 16, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Historically, major geopolitical or economic crises, such as the war against Iran, have prompted investors to sell riskier assets and buy “safe-haven” investments whose values were expected to remain stable or even rise amid the disruptions. The most popular safe havens have been the US dollar, gold, and longer-term… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Dip That Didn’t Bounce (March 2, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Retail investors have emerged as a crucial stabilizing force behind the ascent of the “Magnificent 7” in recent years. Rather than displacing institutional or ETF demand, their participation has added a new, resilient layer of support. This cohort’s propensity to buy and hold mega-cap tech stocks, even through periods of… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Warsh Doctrine (February 17, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF When Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to be the next Federal Reserve chair, last departed the central bank in 2011, it was more than a career move — it was an act of ideological dissent. He cautioned that the Fed’s post-crisis expansion of authority would erode its institutional independence and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Erosion of Exorbitant Privilege (February 2, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Japan’s pursuit of aggressive fiscal stimulus has put it in a precarious position. Prime Minister Takaichi has called snap elections for February 8 to leverage her popularity and improve her parliamentary majority to pass a major tax cut plan. The market’s response, however, has been a haunting echo of the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Great Silver Short Squeeze (January 20, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF There is perhaps no market force more fearsome than a true short squeeze. In our increasingly digitized financial world, a perilous gap often emerges between “paper” positions and physical reality. A short squeeze occurs when entities that have sold a promise to deliver an asset, be it a stock, a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – America’s AI Buildout and Its Market Risks (January 5, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF The construction of data centers has come to define the US economic narrative of 2024 and 2025. This unprecedented buildout reflects the urgent need to adapt national infrastructure to the rapid proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI). While the surge in investment has provided a powerful boost to economic activity, it… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – What Catch-Up Economic Reports Say About the AI Boom (December 8, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Now that the federal government’s record-breaking shutdown over budget issues has ended, agencies have been releasing batches of delayed economic reports. In some cases, officials have warned the reports may never be released, given that statisticians can’t go back in time and collect certain data. The prime examples of… Read More »