Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a bi-weekly basis, updating the piece every other Monday.
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Evolution of the Tech Life Cycle (June 29, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF AI is reshaping the fundamental business model of technology companies. For decades, many tech firms distinguished themselves through capital-light operations and strong cash generation, allowing them to deliver both growth and profitability. This model enabled companies to attract investors by telling a compelling growth story, one centered on adaptability, continuous… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – China Cuts Its Energy Imports (June 15, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As we’ve noted before, the most immediate economic and financial market risk from the Iran war is the possibility of further price hikes for oil, natural gas, and some other commodities that depend heavily on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Because of the war, the strait has now… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The UAE’s Exit From OPEC (June 1, 2026)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On May 1, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) formally exited both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ grouping of major oil producers. Such exits are not unheard of. For example, Indonesia suspended its membership in OPEC in 2015. However, Indonesia left the cartel not… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Power of Gold (May 11, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since the Iran war began on February 28, several corners of the financial market have behaved in unusual and unexpected ways, with gold prices being perhaps the most surprising. Gold has been a safe-haven asset for centuries, and investors have come to expect its value to rise in times… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Consensus Builder (April 27, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF You never really appreciate a good thing until it’s gone. May 15 will be the final day in office for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, one of the most effective consensus builders in Fed history. Despite an extraordinary series of shocks during his tenure — from the 2019 repo market… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Wars, Price Shocks, and Inventories (April 13, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since the launch of the US-Israeli war against Iran on February 28, if there’s been one dramatic feature, it’s that the conflict and official statements about it have shifted dramatically almost on a daily basis. By the time this report is published, the war could be going in a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Strategic Petroleum Reserve: A Primer (March 30, 2026)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On March 11, the International Energy Agency announced a coordinated draw of 400 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) System maintained by the organization’s member countries. Understanding the reasoning behind this decision requires an examination of the economics of inventory. This analysis will help the reader understand that… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Are Long-Term Treasurys No Longer a Safe Haven? (March 16, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Historically, major geopolitical or economic crises, such as the war against Iran, have prompted investors to sell riskier assets and buy “safe-haven” investments whose values were expected to remain stable or even rise amid the disruptions. The most popular safe havens have been the US dollar, gold, and longer-term… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Dip That Didn’t Bounce (March 2, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Retail investors have emerged as a crucial stabilizing force behind the ascent of the “Magnificent 7” in recent years. Rather than displacing institutional or ETF demand, their participation has added a new, resilient layer of support. This cohort’s propensity to buy and hold mega-cap tech stocks, even through periods of… Read More »