Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a bi-weekly basis, updating the piece every other Monday.
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – China’s Threat to the AI Investment Boom (August 17, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez | PDF The artificial intelligence frenzy has arguably become the most important driver of US economic growth and financial market returns. Large technology firms ranging from established giants like Meta to upstart powerhouses such as OpenAI are spending billions of dollars to develop the most powerful large language models. To accommodate the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The PCE Makeover (August 3, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of price inflation is set for a methodological update, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is expected to implement revisions to its price index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) as early as September. Early estimates suggest the changes will modestly lower measured PCE inflation,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – In Warsh, We Trust? (July 20, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is pushing for a clear regime shift, starting with a complete overhaul of the central bank’s communications strategy. This month, he appointed a task force led by two former central bank heads — Mervyn King of the Bank of England and Arminio Fraga… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Evolution of the Tech Life Cycle (June 29, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF AI is reshaping the fundamental business model of technology companies. For decades, many tech firms distinguished themselves through capital-light operations and strong cash generation, allowing them to deliver both growth and profitability. This model enabled companies to attract investors by telling a compelling growth story, one centered on adaptability, continuous… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – China Cuts Its Energy Imports (June 15, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As we’ve noted before, the most immediate economic and financial market risk from the Iran war is the possibility of further price hikes for oil, natural gas, and some other commodities that depend heavily on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Because of the war, the strait has now… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The UAE’s Exit From OPEC (June 1, 2026)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On May 1, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) formally exited both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ grouping of major oil producers. Such exits are not unheard of. For example, Indonesia suspended its membership in OPEC in 2015. However, Indonesia left the cartel not… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Power of Gold (May 11, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since the Iran war began on February 28, several corners of the financial market have behaved in unusual and unexpected ways, with gold prices being perhaps the most surprising. Gold has been a safe-haven asset for centuries, and investors have come to expect its value to rise in times… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Consensus Builder (April 27, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF You never really appreciate a good thing until it’s gone. May 15 will be the final day in office for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, one of the most effective consensus builders in Fed history. Despite an extraordinary series of shocks during his tenure — from the 2019 repo market… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Wars, Price Shocks, and Inventories (April 13, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Since the launch of the US-Israeli war against Iran on February 28, if there’s been one dramatic feature, it’s that the conflict and official statements about it have shifted dramatically almost on a daily basis. By the time this report is published, the war could be going in a… Read More »