Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly
Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a bi-weekly basis, updating the piece every other Monday.
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Warsh Doctrine (February 17, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF When Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to be the next Federal Reserve chair, last departed the central bank in 2011, it was more than a career move — it was an act of ideological dissent. He cautioned that the Fed’s post-crisis expansion of authority would erode its institutional independence and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Erosion of Exorbitant Privilege (February 2, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Japan’s pursuit of aggressive fiscal stimulus has put it in a precarious position. Prime Minister Takaichi has called snap elections for February 8 to leverage her popularity and improve her parliamentary majority to pass a major tax cut plan. The market’s response, however, has been a haunting echo of the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Great Silver Short Squeeze (January 20, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF There is perhaps no market force more fearsome than a true short squeeze. In our increasingly digitized financial world, a perilous gap often emerges between “paper” positions and physical reality. A short squeeze occurs when entities that have sold a promise to deliver an asset, be it a stock, a… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – America’s AI Buildout and Its Market Risks (January 5, 2026)
by Thomas Wash | PDF The construction of data centers has come to define the US economic narrative of 2024 and 2025. This unprecedented buildout reflects the urgent need to adapt national infrastructure to the rapid proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI). While the surge in investment has provided a powerful boost to economic activity, it… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – What Catch-Up Economic Reports Say About the AI Boom (December 8, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Now that the federal government’s record-breaking shutdown over budget issues has ended, agencies have been releasing batches of delayed economic reports. In some cases, officials have warned the reports may never be released, given that statisticians can’t go back in time and collect certain data. The prime examples of… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Inflation Adjustment for Social Security Benefits in 2026 (November 17, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Even for dedicated, successful investors who have built up a substantial nest egg, Social Security retirement and disability benefits can be an important part of their financial security. For many people, Social Security benefits are the only significant source of income in advanced age. On average, these benefits account… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – When the Financial System Finds a Cockroach (November 3, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF No one likes finding a cockroach, especially in a place that should be clean, like the financial system. Last month, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon issued a warning, suggesting that isolated loan failures — the “cockroaches” — are pointing to a much broader credit risk problem. He specifically flagged risky loan… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Debasement Hedge: A Tale of Two Safeties (October 20, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF The surge of gold past the $4,000-per-ounce level in October marks a definitive pivot in market behavior. Unlike past rallies driven by stock market fear, the current move is distinctly characterized by a structural rotation away from sovereign debt and toward tangible assets. This is not a simple risk-off move.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The AI Arms Race: Navigating the Divide Between Promise and Profit (October 6, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF AI is arguably the most exciting investment story of our time, with discussions swirling around its potential to create new businesses, boost productivity, and drive unprecedented revenue growth. This excitement has fueled massive spending as tech firms race to capitalize on the technology’s promise. As the hype has intensified, however,… Read More »