Asset Allocation Reports

Weekly Energy Update (October 20, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain in a downtrend as concerns about global growth, especially with China, are weighing on prices. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 1.7 mb compared to a 2.0 mb build forecast.  The SPR declined 3.6 mb, meaning the net draw was… Read More »

Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In its battle against inflation, the Fed’s unrelenting tightening through the balance of this year and into next will be a major contributor to dampening demand. A worldwide economic contraction, inclusive of the U.S., is built into our three-year forecast. Our expectations are for a garden-variety recession in… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – An Update on Bonds (October 17, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our starting point for examining bond yields begins with our yield model.  The key components are fed funds, the 15-year average of CPI (which is a proxy for inflation expectations), the five-year rolling standard deviation of CPI (a measure of inflation volatility), German Bund yields, oil prices, the… Read More »

Weekly Energy Update (October 14, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain in a downtrend. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories rose 9.9 mb compared to a 1.0 mb build forecast.  The SPR declined 7.7 mb, meaning the net build was 2.2 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production fell 0.1 mbpd… Read More »

Weekly Energy Update (October 6, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain in a downtrend. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 1.4 mb compared to a 2.1 mb build forecast.  The SPR declined 6.2 mb, meaning the net draw was 7.6 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was steady at… Read More »

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Gold Paradox (October 3, 2022)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Gold prices have been weak in recent months despite high levels of inflation.  Gold is often considered an inflation hedge, and so the lack of strength is puzzling to many investors.  In this report, we will take a look at gold and try to explain why prices have… Read More »

Weekly Energy Update (September 29, 2022)

by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices remain under pressure due to recession fears. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 0.2 mb compared to a 2.0 mb build forecast.  The SPR declined 4.6 mb, meaning the net draw was 4.8 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production… Read More »

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