by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with a slew of items on China’s politics and economy. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including a new Australia-India deal that aims to boost the latter’s rare-earths industry and an important statement by a Federal Reserve policymaker calling for aggressive interest-rate cuts through the end of the year.

Chinese Politics: Reports yesterday said Chinese authorities have detained Liu Jianchao, a senior Chinese diplomat widely seen as a potential future foreign minister. As of this writing, no further details have been made available. However, Liu could be just the latest in a long series of military, diplomatic, and industry officials who have been arrested by General Secretary Xi’s government on allegations of corruption. In at least some cases, the “corruption” may have involved ties to foreign intelligence services.

Chinese Price Inflation: In a report Saturday, the July consumer price index was unchanged from one year ago, a bit weaker than expectations that CPI inflation would remain at June’s rate of 0.1%. Even more concerning, the July producer price index was down 3.6% on the year, for the 34^th straight month of deflation in business-to-business prices. The figures reflect China’s worsening excess capacity and production coupled with weak consumer demand, which is weighing on prices, hurting corporate profits, and pushing firms to dump exports abroad.

Chinese Industrial Policy: CATL, the world’s largest maker of batteries for electric vehicles, said today that it will suspend operations at one of its key lithium mines in China. Against the backdrop of China’s massive excess capacity, cutthroat competition, and falling prices, CATL’s move is being taken as a sign that Beijing may be starting to take steps to rein in the country’s excess production. In response, Chinese lithium prices have risen modestly today, while share prices for global lithium miners have surged.

Australia-India: The South China Morning Post yesterday said Australia and India have launched a program to cooperatively ramp up their output of rare-earth minerals. Under the program, Australia’s relatively advanced rare-earth miners and processors will boost their investment in India so that country can better leverage its big reserves of the critical minerals. The program shows how officials around the world are reacting after belatedly realizing their vulnerability to China’s near monopoly on rare earths.

• Ever since China clamped down on its rare-earth exports to retaliate against the US’s new trade and technology policies, the US and other key governments have been working feverishly to develop their own mines and processing facilities.
• Those efforts are likely to create interesting investment opportunities in the rare-earth mining and processing space going forward.

United States-China: The Financial Times yesterday scooped that in return for the right to sell its H20 artificial-intelligence computer chips to China, semiconductor giant Nvidia agreed to pay 15% of the associated revenues to the US government. The report said AMD has also agreed to pay 15% of its AI-chip revenue in China to the US government. The payments, which are essentially an export tariff, suggest the administration could impose similar payments on other exporters in return for looking away from the national security implications of their sales.

United States-Brazil: The US administration is reportedly preparing further sanctions on Brazil for its persecution of the country’s former right-wing populist president, Jair Bolsonaro, who is under trial for conspiring to overthrow the democracy. Coming on top of the US’s punitive 50% tariff against Brazilian imports, the new sanctions will reportedly be focused on judges involved with the Bolsonaro trial. However, the US’s readiness to impose further penalties probably raises the risk of new sanctions on the broader economy as well.

US Monetary Policy: In a speech on Saturday, Fed board member Michelle Bowman said the recent downward revisions to US payroll counts suggest the central bank should be cutting interest rates. Indeed, Bowman said that she expects to support a rate cut at each of the Fed’s three remaining policy meetings this year. Despite President Trump’s anger at the revised payroll data, Bowman’s comments illustrate how signs of a weakening labor market support the president’s call for the Fed to cut rates more aggressively.

US Economy: The Financial Times carries an article today highlighting how smaller businesses in St. Louis have begun to sharply hike prices in response to the US’s new import tariffs. The article is consistent with other recent data showing that price inflation is picking up for goods more exposed to imports and that smaller firms are more apt to be hiking prices, probably because they have less market power and financial flexibility to absorb the higher tariff costs. What isn’t clear is how long those price hikes will continue and how much they’ll broaden.

Global Rice Market: Export prices for Thai 5% broken white rice, the global benchmark, have dropped to $372.50 per metric ton in recent days, reaching their lowest level since 2017. Prices are now down some 26% since late last year and 13% for 2025 to date, reflecting both bumper harvests and India’s recent move to start lifting export curbs. Coupled with today’s low prices for crude oil, wheat, and corn, the low rice prices could help keep a lid on consumer price inflation around the world, despite concerns about price hikes from the US’s new import tariffs.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment begins with a discussion of President Trump’s pick for the vacant Fed governor seat. We will then turn to other key stories shaping the market, including our thoughts on the ongoing disagreement over the US-Japan trade agreement, OpenAI’s latest update, and why tariffs are impacting gold prices today. We will conclude by assessing other major international and domestic developments affecting financial markets.

FOMC Shake Up: President Trump has selected Stephen Miran as his pick to fill the vacant seat on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Miran currently serves as the head of the Council of Economic Advisers and is expected to help the president push for lower interest rates. While he still needs Senate confirmation, the chamber is currently controlled by Republicans, which likely improves his chances. Miran was previously confirmed for his current role by a vote of 53-46.

• This move could trigger another FOMC dissent if rates remain unchanged in September. Historically, a Fed Chair facing four dissents from governors is seen as losing confidence and often prompts a resignation. So far, two officials, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, have broken ranks. If Miran joins them, it would mark a critical third vote, edging closer to that symbolic threshold.
• A more dovish Fed is likely to push for additional rate cuts, which should support bond prices in the near term. However, lower rates may also lead to a higher term premium, as investors could demand greater compensation due to rising inflation expectations and the growing supply of bonds from widening deficits. While we remain cautiously bullish on long-term bonds in the short run, the longer term outlook is uncertain, primarily due to fiscal concerns surrounding the deficit.
• That said, in a related development, Fed Governor Christopher Waller has emerged as a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve. If nominated, Waller would effectively serve as a “shadow Fed chair,” helping to signal the central bank’s policy direction to markets ahead of Powell’s eventual departure.

Tariff Adjustments: The White House will change its trade agreement to prevent the stacking of tariffs on Japanese imported goods, therefore stopping new tariffs from being added to existing ones. This decision comes at the insistence of Japan, as this provision was explicitly included in the European Union agreement but not in the one with Japan. Excessive tariffs are expected to be refunded.

• A significant amount of the confusion surrounding the agreement is due to the absence of a written document. However, this lack of a written agreement may suggest that trade negotiations could continue.
• Despite announced agreements, we anticipate more closed-door discussions on contentious issues such as each country’s investment pledges. These conversations will likely be kept quiet until negotiations are finalized to shield the market from any signs of uncertainty.
• Even so, this informal approach to trade talks doesn’t alter our outlook. We anticipate the president will prioritize market stability and avoid any trade policies that could disrupt the economy.

Gold Prices: The US has imposed tariffs on one-kilogram gold bar imports in a move that has contributed to a sharp rise in bullion prices. The tariffs are likely to negatively impact Swiss gold manufacturers, who play a significant role in melting gold for sale in the London and New York markets. Swiss Gold was initially assumed to be exempt from tariffs, similar to other commodities, including certain classifications of bullion. The move highlights the president’s push to establish more manufacturing in the US.

Open AI Upgrade: OpenAI has launched the newest version of its language model, GPT-5, in an effort to enhance its competitive standing. The model’s primary updates include a focus on improving its code-writing ability, a field where competitors like Anthropic have excelled. It also features new reasoning capabilities designed to reduce hallucinations — the generation of fabricated information. This release is expected to serve as a benchmark for the technology’s performance amid growing business interest.

Taiwan AI Exports: Despite a strong currency and a 20% US tariff rate, which is higher than many of its neighbors, Taiwan has surpassed its full-year trade surplus record in just seven months. This surge was largely driven by the export of AI-related goods, for which demand has been exceptionally high, and by customers rushing to place orders ahead of the tariff deadline. While the next few months may see a slowdown for Taiwanese goods, we still believe that exports related to AI will continue to grow, even in the face of trade uncertainty.

Gaza Takeover: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced plans for the country to take over Gaza City. The decision reportedly goes against the advice of his own military, but Netanyahu has stated that it is essential for driving Hamas out of power and providing security for Israel. His plan includes the return of hostages, the creation of a temporary Gaza administration, and the eventual handover of the region to Arab forces. The move is likely to lead to global criticism but unlikely to impact markets in the short-term.

Armenia-Azerbaijan: President Trump is scheduled to meet with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to mediate a peace agreement. The two former Soviet countries have a long history of conflict over territory, particularly the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, which Azerbaijan fully recaptured in 2023. This decision to hold talks underscores the president’s preference for managing global tensions through diplomatic deals rather than military intervention.

Redistricting Fight: President Trump continues to play an active role as states prepare their electoral maps for the 2026 midterm elections. Notably, he is advocating for the exclusion of immigrants from census counts — a controversial position that would likely face immediate legal challenges. The redistricting debate has intensified as Texas advances proposals that could create five additional GOP-favorable congressional districts.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment begins with an examination of President Trump’s recent tariff announcement. We will then turn to other key stories shaping the market, including our thoughts on a potential meeting between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, an update on the president’s search for a new chair and governor to reshape the Federal Reserve, and recent changes to 401(k) retirement plans. We will conclude by assessing other major international and domestic developments impacting financial markets.

Trump Tariffs: President Trump has announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on all imported chips and semiconductors, with an important exception. The tariffs will not apply to companies that have committed to or are actively increasing their semiconductor manufacturing presence within the United States. This policy highlights a key aspect of the Trump administration’s trade strategy: using tariffs as a powerful incentive to drive both foreign and domestic companies to expand their production capabilities in the US.

• The president’s decision to expand carve-outs will likely bolster market confidence, as these tariffs are now expected to be less disruptive than initially feared. Furthermore, this decision indicates that the administration may be shifting toward a policy model that favors companies focused on strengthening US industrial capacity.
• That said, we continue to assess the potential economic impact of these tariffs. While we remain cautiously optimistic that the economy can absorb the shocks, we are closely monitoring consumer spending and corporate earnings to gauge how businesses and households are adjusting.

Putin-Trump Meeting: The White House announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Trump may hold a meeting as early as next week. This decision to hold talks follows President Trump’s recent threats to impose secondary sanctions on countries like India and China that purchase Russian goods. The administration hopes the meeting will lead to greater progress in ending the war in Ukraine.

• Trump is pushing for an end to the conflict in Ukraine, citing a desire to reduce US funding for conflicts without direct involvement. The conflict’s resolution would likely restore stability to the European continent, potentially boosting regional equities. It could also lead to Russian energy returning to the market, which may put downward pressure on commodity prices.
• We will be paying close attention to how Europe navigates the end of the conflict. If Europe seeks rapprochement with Russia, it could provide another significant boost to the region’s equities, given its proximity and ongoing need for more energy. While many in the region have pushed back against trusting Russia, it is possible that sentiment could shift, especially as Europe looks to reduce its dependency on the US.

Temporary Fed Governor: President Trump may appoint a temporary official to fill the vacant Fed governor seat. The position became open after Adriana Kugler resigned early, even though her term was set to expire in January. This temporary appointment could calm fears of a “shadow Fed chair” and simultaneously increase pressure on Chair Powell to cut rates at the upcoming meeting. That said, the two leading contenders to take over the Fed are Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. 

Saving Social Security: There is a bipartisan effort underway to improve the solvency of Social Security. Senators Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Tim Kaine (D-VA) are spearheading a proposal to create a $1.5 trillion investment fund over the next five years, which would then be given 70 years to grow. This plan marks the second major proposal in recent years that considers investing in financial markets to help fund future benefits. It follows a similar concept to the “Trump accounts” that were included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Japan Auction Success: The country’s sale of 30-year bonds was met with solid demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio consistent with its yearly average. This strong showing is likely to reaffirm confidence in the demand for its long-term debt, despite political uncertainty and concerns over increased stimulus spending. However, this robust interest is likely the result of low issuance, as the country has been shifting toward selling lower-duration debt to finance its spending.

Bank of England Cuts: The central bank lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% on Thursday. While the rate cut was widely anticipated, the decision was contentious and required a second vote after one member switched their stance from advocating for a deeper cut to supporting the 25 bps reduction, while other policymakers maintained their hold positions. This hesitancy suggests that while monetary policy is on a downward trajectory, the easing cycle is likely to proceed more gradually when compared to some of its peers.

China Crackdown: In an effort to curb bureaucracy, Beijing has mandated that officials reduce the frequency of meetings and limit official documents to 5,000 words. The move aims to allow the government to focus on supporting the economy, which is grappling with a weakening trade environment and a property slump. The policy follows a recent warning from Chinese President Xi Jinping to local governments about over-investing in AI and electric vehicles, which may signal a new anti-corruption investigation into those areas.

401K Gets a Boost: President Trump will sign an executive order enabling alternative assets in retirement accounts, directing the Labor Department to review ERISA guidelines on private equity, real estate, and cryptocurrency investments. The move could unlock trillions in retirement funds for non-traditional assets while raising questions about risk exposure for 401(k) participants.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment begins with an examination of why a degree of optimism about the economy remains warranted despite recent subpar economic data. We then turn to other key stories shaping the market, including our analysis of Tuesday’s Treasury auction, the president’s push to end the conflict in Ukraine, and the factors behind the recent surge in investment-grade bond issuance. Finally, we assess other major international and domestic developments impacting financial markets.

 US Services Stagnate: A survey of purchasing managers revealed that firms are still adjusting to the impact of tariffs. According to the Institute for Supply Management, services activity remained relatively unchanged from the previous month. Much of the weakness stemmed from a slowdown in employment growth as companies scaled back hiring. Additionally, the survey indicated that input prices continued to rise, while export orders showed signs of weakening.

• The recent report has dampened market sentiment, as uncertainty persists regarding the potential impact of tariffs on the economy. However, the economy continues to show resilience, suggesting that the current market rally still has significant momentum. This perspective is further supported by strong earnings from Disney, which reflect robust consumer spending in the travel and leisure sectors.
• That said, we maintain a risk-neutral stance for now, as we continue to assess the economic impact of tariffs. While we do not foresee an imminent recession, some signs of weakness may persist temporarily before fading as the fiscal stimulus takes full effect. Once there is clearer evidence of sustained economic resilience, we believe shifting to a more risk-on position would be warranted.

 US Bond Auction: The first of three Treasury auctions saw tepid demand. The $58 billion sale of 3-year notes closed at a yield of 3.669%, slightly above pre-auction levels. The results suggest that the supply of bonds is exceeding demand. This outcome may be a reflection of current market concerns, including inflation and US deficit spending, which can influence the appetite for government debt.

• This week will be crucial in gauging market appetite for US Treasurys. While auction performance can fluctuate, any sustained signs of weaker investor demand could pressure yields higher, reflecting diminished absorption of Treasury issuance.
• While a single auction does not define overall demand, sustained weak performance could establish a floor for yields, particularly if the Fed begins cutting rates. Should auctions consistently underperform, it may even prompt the Fed to halt balance sheet tightening earlier than expected.

 Italy’s Defense Bridge: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is poised to approve construction of a bridge linking Sicily to mainland Italy, framing the 13 billion EUR ($15.1 billion) project as a boost to defense spending. However, the move has drawn criticism. While proponents argue the bridge would help NATO counter Russia’s expanding influence in the Mediterranean, detractors contend the funds would be better spent directly enhancing military readiness, such as upgrading ports, airports, and roads, to prepare for potential Russian aggression.

• Italy’s move to classify certain infrastructure projects as defense spending illustrates how European governments may redirect military budgets to fund domestic infrastructure priorities.
• We maintain confidence that the EU’s increased defense spending will provide a meaningful boost to the broader economy and, by extension, equity markets. This reinforces our constructive outlook on international stocks.

 Pharmaceutical Tariffs: The White House has unveiled plans to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical imports that could eventually reach 250%. While the duties would start at lower levels, they would gradually increase over 18 months until reaching the full rate. This move is part of the administration’s broader effort to incentivize domestic drug manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign production.

 Russia Ready to Talk: Moscow has indicated its willingness to consider a potential air ceasefire in Ukraine as a means of meeting the White House’s demand for progress toward peace. This conciliatory gesture appears to be an attempt to persuade Washington against implementing secondary sanctions, particularly tariff hikes for countries that continue to purchase Russian energy. This potential action coincides with the imminent threat of tariff increases for India and China if a ceasefire agreement is not secured.

 Mexico and Canada Team Up: The two North American nations are exploring deeper trade integration to reduce their economic dependence on the United States. Their leaders have agreed to develop a joint strategy aimed at aligning supply chains and fostering collaboration in AI development. This initiative reflects a broader global reassessment of economic strategies, as Washington signals its retreat from the role of global importer of last resort.

 AI Boom: Siemens, the German industrial giant specializing in gas turbines and power grid equipment, reported that its order backlog has surged to a record high, driven by soaring electricity demand from data centers. This sharp increase reflects a wave of facility upgrades as companies worldwide modernize infrastructure to support expanding data center capacity. Notably, the AI boom appears to be insulating certain sectors from tariff concerns, as businesses increasingly view advanced technology investments as essential for future competitiveness.

 Investment Grade Surge: US companies have issued more debt in the first half of this year than in any comparable period since 2020, when the Federal Reserve aggressively cut rates to address the pandemic. This surge in corporate borrowing comes as growing optimism about recent trade deals has helped ease global economic uncertainty. Notably, much of this new issuance has skewed toward shorter maturities. Although demand may soften in the coming months, credit spreads are expected to stay relatively tight.

 Poland Infighting: Newly inaugurated Polish President Karol Nawrocki has indicated that he will slow down judicial reform efforts. This stance contrasts with the conditions set by the European Union regarding the rule of law that Poland must meet to unblock earmarked funds. His position is likely to create friction with the EU, and it highlights a broader trend of growing influence for right-wing political figures, particularly in Eastern Europe.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with new data showing how China’s massive excess industrial capacity is undermining corporate profits and prompting big layoffs. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including a rush effort by Switzerland to forestall the 39% tariffs that President Trump announced against it last week and Trump’s statement today that he won’t nominate Treasury Secretary Bessent to lead the Federal Reserve when the term of current Chair Powell ends in May.

China: New regulatory filings by China’s top publicly-traded solar panel firms show they collectively shed 31% of their employees last year. The layoffs illustrate the effects of China’s massive overcapacity in key industries championed by the government, such as electric vehicles and solar panels. Excess production, weak domestic demand, and increasing barriers to trade continue to spark vicious price wars and falling profitability for major firms in the sectors.

United Kingdom: British bank stocks surged yesterday in response to a Supreme Court ruling that shielded them from liability for aggressive auto-loan selling tactics and insufficient lending disclosures by the nation’s car dealers. The ruling lifts a cloud that had been hanging over UK banks, especially those that have big exposure to domestic auto lending. For example, the stock price of specialty lender Close Brothers closed up 23% on the day, while Lloyds Banking Group rose 9%.

Ukraine: In a little-noticed statement at the end of last month, Ukrainian President Zelensky called for a $6-billion fund to produce cheap, expendable interceptor drones that could take down Russian attack drones without relying on expensive surface-to-air missiles. Zelensky aims for Ukraine to produce up to 1,000 interceptor drones per day. The plan is further evidence of how autonomous vehicles are becoming one of the key weapons of war and a potential opportunity for defense-industry investors.

Israel: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s cabinet yesterday voted to fire Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, who is prosecuting Netanyahu for corruption. On concern that Netanyahu was illegally trying to protect himself and his aides, the Supreme Court immediately issued an injunction against the move and ruled that the attorney general would maintain all her authority. The incident is being seen as a new move toward authoritarianism by Netanyahu which, along with the war in Gaza, could potentially make Israel a pariah state in investors’ eyes.

Brazil: The Supreme Court yesterday ordered the house arrest of former President Bolsonaro as it probes accusations that he plotted a military takeover of the country in 2022. The move has prompted protests by thousands of supporters of the former right-wing populist leader. Another potential impact may come in the form of greater political and economic pressure from the US, where President Trump has already announced a 50% tariff against Brazilian imports as punishment for Brasilia’s prosecution of Bolsonaro.

United States-Switzerland: Bern today said President Karin Keller-Sutter and Economy Minister Guy Parmelin are rushing to Washington with new trade offers aimed at avoiding the 39% tariff against Switzerland that President Trump announced last week. Keller-Sutter, of the centrist Liberal Party, has reportedly had strained relations with Trump, but the Swiss hope that adding Parmelin, of the right-wing Swiss People’s Party, will help appease the US and result in a tariff more in line with those imposed on other developed countries.

United States-India: President Trump yesterday said he plans to “substantially” hike US tariffs on imports from India because of its purchases of Russian oil. The new tariffs would evidently be on top of the 25% tariff imposed on imports from India last week. Not only does Trump’s threat reflect the souring US-India relationship, but it also is the latest evidence that he has abandoned his previous effort to forge warmer ties with Russia.

US Politics: In response to Texas Governor Abbott’s push for a mid-decade redistricting to elect more Republicans to the House of Representatives, which we described in yesterday’s Comment, Democrats in states such as California, New York, and Illinois are taking steps to do the same in their states and send more Democrats to the House. At stake is whether control of the House will shift back from the Republicans to the Democrats in next year’s mid-term election. In the longer term, the moves threaten to worsen political polarization and complicate policymaking.

US Monetary Policy: President Trump this morning ruled out nominating Treasury Secretary Bessent to lead the Fed when current Chair Powell’s term ends next May. According to Trump, Bessent wants to stay in his current position. The president said his short list of candidates is now down to Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and two other persons that he declined to name.

• Regarding the Fed board seat vacated last week by Adriana Kugler, Trump said he’s leaning toward filling it soon with a short-term replacement. However, he also said he might use the vacancy to install the person who will succeed Powell in May.
• In any case, the president seems well on his way toward filling out the Fed with more dovish policymakers who will be more likely to cut interest rates aggressively in 2026.

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by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash

[Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF

Our Comment today opens with two news items on global energy supplies, which together appear to be weighing on oil prices so far this morning. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including a continued slowdown in Turkey’s consumer price inflation and a few observations on President Trump’s firing of the chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.

Global Oil Market: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their Russia-led partners yesterday said they will boost their oil production by a collective 547,000 barrels per day starting in September. The production increases will be led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Counting the group’s other recent output increases, the September boost will reverse its 2023 output cut of 2.2 million bpd and further raise the risk of excess supply on the global market. Reflecting the news, global oil prices are down about 1.7% so far today.

Brazil: British oil giant BP today announced it has found a major new oil field in the southern Atlantic Ocean about 320 miles off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. The field is believed to contain a mix of oil, gas, and condensate, but BP said it is too early to assess the size or quality of the reserves. Nevertheless, the company said the field is its biggest discovery in 25 years. As of this writing, the news has given a significant boost to BP’s share prices today.

Turkey: The July consumer price index was up just 33.5% from the same month one year earlier, easing from the 35.1% increase in the year to June and marking the third straight month of cooling. The continued slowdown in inflation will likely set the stage for the central bank to cut interest rates further in the coming months.

China: General Secretary Xi’s chief of staff, Cai Qi, today opened a forum of dozens of Chinese academics and scientists in the seaside town of Beidaihe, signaling that the leadership’s annual summer retreat at the resort has begun. Chinese leaders will be ensconced at the resort for the next 10 to 14 days, which means Chinese policy news could be quite limited until late August. With many European countries basically shut down for the summer holidays, that could make for some very slow news days (and quiet financial markets?) for the time being.

Switzerland: Swiss stock prices opened sharply lower today, falling as much as 1.9% before closing down 0.6%. The country’s stock market was closed for a national holiday on Friday, so the downdraft today appears to be a delayed reaction to President Trump’s announcement last Thursday that the US will impose a huge 39% tariff on Swiss imports. Switzerland’s big pharmaceutical firms are seen as especially at risk of Trump’s tariffs.

US Politics: Texas Governor Greg Abbott has called a special session of the state legislature to redraw its congressional election districts in a way that would likely shift five US House seats to Republican control from Democratic control. However, dozens of Democratic state legislators have left the state to deny the needed legislative quorum. Trump is supporting the unusual mid-decade redistricting to boost the Republicans’ chance of keeping control of the House in next year’s mid-term elections.

US Monetary Policy: President Trump last night said he expects to name a replacement within the next few days for Fed governor Adriana Kugler, who resigned on Friday. Outside observers believe the top candidates for the position include Kevin Hassett, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, former Fed official Kevin Warsh of Stanford’s Hoover Institution, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Whomever Trump nominates could then be elevated to chair of the policymaking body when current Chair Powell’s term ends in May.

US Economy: In television interviews yesterday, Director of the National Economic Council Hassett denied that President Trump’s decision on Friday to fire the chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics constituted “shooting the messenger” over the weak July employment report. Hassett cited “partisan patterns” in the data to argue that the president should have his own person heading BLS but declined to provide evidence of problems with the figures.

• Statements by Trump and other administration officials suggest the president was unhappy with the big downward revision in nonfarm payrolls in May and June, as well as the weak job growth in July.
• However, such downward revisions are not unusual. Indeed, they reflect the US’s sophisticated processes to firm up its economic data as new information becomes available. Those processes and the government’s willingness to update its figures have helped make US economic data the gold standard for accurate economic reporting.
• News of the BLS firing on Friday appeared to worsen the day’s sell-off in US stocks, suggesting investors see a risk that this action will politicize the country’s economic data. Investors are likely concerned that future US economic reports could be manipulated to make politicians look good or avoid making them look bad.
• If investors lose faith in the reliability of US economic data, they might also discount the value of US assets, worsening the early signs of capital flight that became apparent early this year. That could potentially drive down prices for US stocks, bonds, and the dollar.

US Defense Industry: Some 3,200 workers in Boeing’s defense division went on strike at midnight today in a dispute over pay and benefits. The strike raises fresh concerns about the US’s ability to produce key weapons systems, such as the F/A-18 Super Hornet and F-15 Eagle fighter jets, as well as various missiles and munitions. Separately, new reporting says China is continuing to limit rare-earth exports used by Western defense industries despite a deal with the US last month to loosen its controls.

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