Research & News
Daily Comment (June 15, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with some observations about the reported US-Iran deal to extend their current ceasefire. Importantly, we think investors should consider the deal highly fragile and not necessarily enough to prevent a further spike in energy prices. On a news… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – China Cuts Its Energy Imports (June 15, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As we’ve noted before, the most immediate economic and financial market risk from the Iran war is the possibility of further price hikes for oil, natural gas, and some other commodities that depend heavily on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Because of the war, the strait has now… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 12, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with a discussion of the ECB’s decision to raise rates and its potential implications for other central banks. We then turn to the ongoing talks of renewing the USMCA before covering SpaceX’s anticipated IPO, and the latest developments in… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 11, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with takeaways from the latest CPI report and its implications for monetary policy. We then provide an update on the US-Iran conflict, followed by an analysis of the oil markets. Next, we briefly cover PIMCO’s growing concerns regarding financial… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 10, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with our thoughts on the growing concerns about AI. We then turn to geopolitics, examining the latest developments in the conflict between the US and Iran. Next, we briefly cover the EU cracking down on Meta, Middle Eastern countries… Read More »
Daily Comment (June 9, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF On a slow news day, our short Comment today opens with early signs of relatively disappointing demand for World Cup tickets, which could mean the economic stimulus from the event will be less than expected. We next review several other international and… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Excess Capacity and Policy Change (June 8, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF A key challenge of the big-picture, top-down investment analysis that we do at Confluence is tracing the real-world impact of a country’s economic policy initiatives. Whether policymakers are trying to boost economic growth, bring down price inflation, or achieve another goal, our aim is to figure out if the… Read More »