Weekly Geopolitical Report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Second Korean War: Part I (June 19, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady Tensions with North Korea have been escalating in recent months.  The regime has tested numerous missiles and claims to be capable of building nuclear warheads, which, combined with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), would make the Hermit Kingdom a direct threat to the U.S.  Such a situation is intolerable to the U.S., and… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – South Korea’s Too Big to Fail (June 12, 2017)

by Thomas K. Wash On March 10, Park Geun-hye was removed from her position as president of South Korea. Her ouster came on the heels of a scandal involving her close confidant who is accused of seeking bribes from chaebols, a group of family-owned multinational conglomerates that dominate the South Korean economy, to curry favor with… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Are the Germans Bad? (June 5, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady At the NATO meetings late last month, the German media reported that President Trump had called the Germans “bad” for running trade surpluses with the U.S.  The president threatened trade restrictions, focusing on German automobiles.  Needless to say, this comment caused a minor international incident. Although such incidents come and go, it did… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Trade: Part IV (May 22, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Memorial Day holiday, our next report will be published on June 5.) This is the final report of our four-part series on trade.  This week, our discussion on trade continues with a look at the relationship between trade, employment and inflation.  We will also conclude the series with market ramifications.… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Trade: Part III (May 15, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady This week, we continue our discussion on trade by examining the reserve currency issue. What is the reserve currency? When a country runs a trade surplus, it creates excess saving that must be either invested overseas or held as foreign reserves.  If a gold standard is being used, the excess saving/foreign reserves can… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Trade: Part II (May 8, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady In this multi-part report, we offer several reflections on trade that we hope can provide some insight into how to use macroeconomics to judge the veracity of certain claims.  In Part I, we laid out the basic macroeconomics of trade.  This week, in Part II, we will discuss the impact of exchange rates… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Trade: Part I (May 1, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady Donald Trump ran on a platform opposing free trade.  Although Congressional support for free trade has been waning for some time, the general consensus among economists is that free trade makes the economy more efficient and supports global stability. However, the steady erosion of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. and the shrinking of… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Between a Rock and a Hard Place: The Gibraltar Dilemma (April 24, 2017)

by Thomas Wash Days after Theresa May triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, Brussels issued a nine-page document outlining its guidelines for Brexit negotiations. One of the guidelines gave Spain the authority to veto any deal between Gibraltar and the European Union (EU). The U.K. is currently recognized as holding sovereignty over Gibraltar and thus… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The EU at 60: Part II (April 10, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Easter holiday, the next edition will be published April 24th.) Last week, we began our retrospective on the EU.  This week we will examine the post-Cold War expansion of the EU, including a discussion of the creation of the euro and the Eurozone.  With this background, we will analyze the… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The EU at 60: Part I (April 3, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady On March 25th, European Union (EU) leaders from 27 nations gathered in Rome to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the organization.  Although the EU currently consists of 28 members, the U.K. was absent due to its recent decision to leave the EU. On that day in 1957, France, West Germany,… Read More »

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