Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Is Japan Back? (April 8, 2024)
by Thomas Wash | PDF In the early 1960s, futurologist Herman Kahn boldly predicted Japan’s economic dominance. He envisioned the nation surpassing the United States in per-capita economic output by 1990 and matching its total economic output a decade later. Kahn’s vision seemed imminent, fueled by Japan’s rise as a major exporter of autos and… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Venezuela Threatens Guyana (March 25, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Even though “Great Power” competition between big countries like the United States and China is once again the main source of tension in international affairs, smaller-scale tensions and conflicts involving regional powers still have the potential to disrupt key supply chains and escalate into broader wars. One such potential… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rebirth of US Nuclear Deterrence (March 11, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Fifteen years ago, a revolution in United States national security policy began very quietly. It occurred within a subject we have recently addressed in this forum and that is re-emerging as a hot topic of discussion in national security circles after a long hiatus: deterrence,… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Posen vs. Pettis (February 26, 2024)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Michael Pettis is a professor of finance at Guanghua School of Management at Peking University in Beijing and a nonresident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a well-known analyst of China’s economy and financial system. Adam Posen is currently the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. … Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Thinking About Deterrence (February 12, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF In his book Leviathan, published in 1651, the English philosopher Thomas Hobbs argued that human society in the state of nature would be marked by conflict and mistrust, as each person would be free to attack his or her neighbor to acquire needed resources. According… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Introducing the U.S. Space Force (January 29, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF On December 20, 2019, something extremely rare happened in the United States Armed Forces: An entirely new branch of service was born. For context, the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps were born by acts of the Continental Congress in 1775. The Coast Guard came into being by act of… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – What If Russia Wins in Ukraine? (January 16, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF For the last two years, we’ve written a great deal about the evolving China-led geopolitical bloc and Beijing’s allies within it, including top partner Russia and other like-minded nations such as North Korea, Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela. We believe the geopolitical challenge to the United States and its allies… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2024 Geopolitical Outlook (December 11, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the final BWGR of 2023; the next report will be published on January 15, 2024.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Archetypes of American Foreign Policy: A Reprise (November 13, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF A critical issue in 2024 will be the U.S. presidential elections. America is going through a particularly partisan period where passing legislation is difficult and policy shifts between administrations are widening. Foreign policy isn’t exempt from these changes. In preparation for next year’s election, we wanted to update one of our… Read More »