Weekly Geopolitical Report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Between a Rock and a Hard Place: The Gibraltar Dilemma (April 24, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady Days after Theresa May triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, Brussels issued a nine-page document outlining its guidelines for Brexit negotiations. One of the guidelines gave Spain the authority to veto any deal between Gibraltar and the European Union (EU). The U.K. is currently recognized as holding sovereignty over Gibraltar and thus… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The EU at 60: Part II (April 10, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Easter holiday, the next edition will be published April 24th.) Last week, we began our retrospective on the EU.  This week we will examine the post-Cold War expansion of the EU, including a discussion of the creation of the euro and the Eurozone.  With this background, we will analyze the… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The EU at 60: Part I (April 3, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady On March 25th, European Union (EU) leaders from 27 nations gathered in Rome to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding of the organization.  Although the EU currently consists of 28 members, the U.K. was absent due to its recent decision to leave the EU. On that day in 1957, France, West Germany,… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – It’s Tsar, Not Comrade (March 27, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady February 12th was the 100-year anniversary of the Russian Revolution.  Surprisingly, the Kremlin has taken a very low-key stance on the centenary.  We believe the government’s decision to downplay this historical event offers an insight into Russian President Putin’s thinking. In this report, we will present a history of the Russian Revolution, showing… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Rise of AMLO: Part II (March 20, 2017)

by Thomas Wash In their next general election, Mexicans will cast their vote for the 64th president of the country’s history. The two frontrunners are Margarita Zavala from the National Action Party and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) from the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA). Although the election won’t be held until July 2018, current polls suggest… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Rise of AMLO: Part I (March 13, 2017)

by Thomas Wash Although many populist movements today, especially in the West, are viewed as a recent phenomenon, it is worth noting that Latin America has had a long history with populism. Populists in South American history include Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Juan and Eva Perón, along with Nestor and Cristina Kirchner, in Argentina, Juan Evo… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Assassination of Kim Jong Nam (March 6, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady On February 13th, Kim Jong Nam, the older half-brother of Kim Jong Un, the leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), was assassinated at an airport in Malaysia.  This event offers insights into the “Hermit Kingdom” and shows the audacious nature of the regime. In this report, we begin with a… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Germany: The Reluctant Superpower (February 27, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady Two recent articles caught our attention.  First, the New York Times discussed growing worries in Germany about a post-American Europe,[1] given the potential withdrawal of the U.S. from the superpower role.  Second, an op-ed in Der Spiegel went so far as to suggest that Germany should become the world leader of an anti-Trump coalition.[2]… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Nuclear Blackmail (February 13, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady (N.B.  Due to the upcoming President’s Day holiday, the next report will be published on Feb. 27th) During the 1950s, in the early days of nuclear weapons, there was much discussion about the potential for nuclear blackmail.  The world had recently defeated fascism but the problem of an aggressive and amoral leader like… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Exit the Shark (February 6, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady On January 8, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani died of a heart attack.  The 82-year-old cleric was a major political figure in Iran and his passing is a significant event for Iran and the region. Analyses of history usually follow one of two lines—the “Great Man” or the “Great Wave.”[1]  The former postulates that the… Read More »

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