Weekly Geopolitical Report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Nuclear Blackmail (February 13, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady (N.B.  Due to the upcoming President’s Day holiday, the next report will be published on Feb. 27th) During the 1950s, in the early days of nuclear weapons, there was much discussion about the potential for nuclear blackmail.  The world had recently defeated fascism but the problem of an aggressive and amoral leader like… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Exit the Shark (February 6, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady On January 8, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani died of a heart attack.  The 82-year-old cleric was a major political figure in Iran and his passing is a significant event for Iran and the region. Analyses of history usually follow one of two lines—the “Great Man” or the “Great Wave.”[1]  The former postulates that the… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Future of the Euro (January 30, 2017)

by Thomas Wash January 1, 2017, marked the 18th anniversary of the induction of the euro, the European single currency. Once praised as the uniting force among European countries, the euro has become a source of populist backlash. From Greece to France, populist politicians have increased their political clout to the chagrin of the establishment.… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – War Gaming: Part II (January 23, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady Two weeks ago, we began this two-part report by examining America’s geographic situation and how it is conducive to superpower status.  This condition is problematic for foreign powers because it can be almost impossible to significantly damage America’s industrial base in a conventional war with the U.S.  In addition, it would be very… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – War Gaming: Part I (January 9, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady (Due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, Part II of this report will be published on January 23.) One of the key elements of global hegemony is the ability of a nation to project power.  Ideally, this means a potential hegemon needs local security.  In other words, a nation that faces significant proximate… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2017 Geopolitical Outlook (December 12, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady (This will be the last WGR for 2016.  The next report will be published on January 9, 2017.) As is our custom, we close out the current year with our outlook for the next one.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Losing the Philippines: Part 2 (December 5, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady (Next week, we will publish our 2017 Geopolitical Outlook; it will be the last issue of 2016.) In Part 1 of this report, we discussed the geography of the Philippines and examined the nation’s history, focusing on its relations with the U.S.  In Part 2 of this report, we will discuss President Rodrigo… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Losing the Philippines: Part 1 (November 21, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady (There will be no report published over the Thanksgiving holiday.  Part 2 of this report will be issued on December 5.) In May, Rodrigo Duterte was elected president of the Philippines, winning 39% of the vote.  He is the first resident of the island of Mindanao to hold the office, making him a… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – President Trump: A Preliminary Analysis (November 14, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady On November 8th, Donald Trump shocked the country and the world by defeating Sen. Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential race by accumulating a majority in the Electoral College.  Mr. Trump, the first president in U.S. history to gain the presidency without having been previously elected to office or served in the military,… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Inflation Targeting: What’s so special about 2%? (November 7, 2016)

by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Speaking at the Boston FRB conference on October 14th, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen indicated that Fed officials are considering the benefits of running a “high pressure economy.”  This sparked speculation that the central bank would allow its inflation target to temporarily exceed 2% as the labor market and aggregate demand improve. The… Read More »

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