Weekly Geopolitical Report

Weekly Geopolitical Report – A Productivity Boom: A Response to Robert Gordon, Part I (July 17, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady Robert J. Gordon is a well-known economist and a professor at Northwestern University. A member of the National Bureau of Economic Research, his most notable work is in the area of productivity.  His 2016 book[1] argued that the best years of American productivity are behind us—highlighted by the introduction of steam power to… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook (July 10, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady As is our custom, we update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year as the first half comes to a close.  This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of the… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Second Korean War: Part II (June 26, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady (N.B.  Due to the Independence Day holiday, our next report will be published on July 10th.  That edition will be our Mid-Year Geopolitical Update.) Last week, we offered background on the situation with North Korea.  We presented a short history of the Korean War with a concentration on the lessons learned by the… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Second Korean War: Part I (June 19, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady Tensions with North Korea have been escalating in recent months.  The regime has tested numerous missiles and claims to be capable of building nuclear warheads, which, combined with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), would make the Hermit Kingdom a direct threat to the U.S.  Such a situation is intolerable to the U.S., and… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – South Korea’s Too Big to Fail (June 12, 2017)

by Thomas K. Wash On March 10, Park Geun-hye was removed from her position as president of South Korea. Her ouster came on the heels of a scandal involving her close confidant who is accused of seeking bribes from chaebols, a group of family-owned multinational conglomerates that dominate the South Korean economy, to curry favor with… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Are the Germans Bad? (June 5, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady At the NATO meetings late last month, the German media reported that President Trump had called the Germans “bad” for running trade surpluses with the U.S.  The president threatened trade restrictions, focusing on German automobiles.  Needless to say, this comment caused a minor international incident. Although such incidents come and go, it did… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Trade: Part IV (May 22, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady (Due to the Memorial Day holiday, our next report will be published on June 5.) This is the final report of our four-part series on trade.  This week, our discussion on trade continues with a look at the relationship between trade, employment and inflation.  We will also conclude the series with market ramifications.… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Trade: Part III (May 15, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady This week, we continue our discussion on trade by examining the reserve currency issue. What is the reserve currency? When a country runs a trade surplus, it creates excess saving that must be either invested overseas or held as foreign reserves.  If a gold standard is being used, the excess saving/foreign reserves can… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Trade: Part II (May 8, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady In this multi-part report, we offer several reflections on trade that we hope can provide some insight into how to use macroeconomics to judge the veracity of certain claims.  In Part I, we laid out the basic macroeconomics of trade.  This week, in Part II, we will discuss the impact of exchange rates… Read More »

Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Trade: Part I (May 1, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady Donald Trump ran on a platform opposing free trade.  Although Congressional support for free trade has been waning for some time, the general consensus among economists is that free trade makes the economy more efficient and supports global stability. However, the steady erosion of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. and the shrinking of… Read More »

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