Current Perspectives

2018 Outlook: Addendum (January 4, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller Summary: When we wrote our 2018 Outlook, we were unable to take into account the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017[1] because the legislation had not been signed by the time we published our report.  This Addendum will address the impact of the tax bill on our forecasts.… Read More »

2018 Outlook (November 30, 2017)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller Summary: Our baseline forecast for 2018 calls for no recession and real GDP growth of 2.25%, with faster growth in H1. Inflation should remain low, with the PCE staying under 2.0%.  Labor markets will remain tight and wage growth will be constrained due to low inflation expectations. Monetary policy… Read More »

2017 Outlook (December 21, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller Key Points: The economy will avoid a recession in 2017. GDP growth is expected to average 2.8% with core PCE inflation approaching the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. Fixed income markets will be challenging: We expect three rate hikes of 25 bps each by the FOMC; Due to rising… Read More »

2016: An Update (February 24, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller Summary: This report is an addendum to our original 2016 forecast.  In our original 2016 Outlook, we forecasted a year-end S&P 500 of 2214.39, based on earnings of $121.67 and a P/E of 18.2x.  As we will document below, we have revised our forecast to 2033.35, with earnings of… Read More »

2016 Outlook (November 30, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller In this report, we will offer our outlook for the upcoming year.  Twenty-sixteen could be an interesting year—presidential elections will be held, the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy and the geopolitical landscape will likely remain complicated.  We will begin the report with our base case for the economy,… Read More »