Current Perspectives

2017 Outlook (December 21, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller Key Points: The economy will avoid a recession in 2017. GDP growth is expected to average 2.8% with core PCE inflation approaching the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. Fixed income markets will be challenging: We expect three rate hikes of 25 bps each by the FOMC; Due to rising… Read More »

2016: An Update (February 24, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller Summary: This report is an addendum to our original 2016 forecast.  In our original 2016 Outlook, we forecasted a year-end S&P 500 of 2214.39, based on earnings of $121.67 and a P/E of 18.2x.  As we will document below, we have revised our forecast to 2033.35, with earnings of… Read More »

2016 Outlook (November 30, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller In this report, we will offer our outlook for the upcoming year.  Twenty-sixteen could be an interesting year—presidential elections will be held, the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy and the geopolitical landscape will likely remain complicated.  We will begin the report with our base case for the economy,… Read More »