Research & News
Daily Comment (December 17, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with the implications of the Venezuelan shipping blockade. Next, we discuss why weak labor data might not trigger a Fed rate cut in January. We then highlight critical market events, including US pressure on Russia for a peace deal,… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 16, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with several public statements made yesterday by Federal Reserve policymakers, all of which suggest the policymaking committee remains split on whether to cut US interest rates further in the coming months. We next review several other international and… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Geopolitical Outlook for 2026 (December 15, 2025)
by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF (This is the final BWGR of 2025; the next report will be published on January 12, 2026.) In mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year, as is our custom. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential new… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 15, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with key takeaways on monetary policy from an interview President Trump did with the Wall Street Journal on Friday. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 12, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with our examination of growing concerns for an AI bubble. We then provide an update on the strategic dynamics of the Ukraine conflict. The analysis continues with key market-moving stories, including reappointment of Federal Reserve governors, corporate partnerships to… Read More »
The 2026 Outlook: Implications of the New Techno-Industrial State (December 11, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Mark Keller, CFA Summary of Expectations | PDF The Economy Economic Growth We expect these trends to be bolstered by stimulative fiscal and monetary policies, ongoing enthusiasm for the promises of AI, and less policy uncertainty. Recession Risk Importantly, we do not expect a recession in… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 11, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with an analysis of the Federal Reserve’s latest rate action and the 2026 policy outlook. We then assess rising US-Venezuela tensions and their implications for US foreign policy. This is followed by other market moving events such as China’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 10, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with an analysis of President Trump’s decision to push for new governance in the EU. Next, we provide a primer for today’s pivotal Fed rate decision. We then offer an overview of critical global developments, including Denmark’s security concerns… Read More »