Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – No Country for Recessions (August 4, 2025)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Recessions in the United States have become less frequent over time. To illustrate this, the chart below shows data from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions in the US, which has been establishing business cycles since January 1854. In the chart, we show the total… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 1, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with a focus on the president’s new tariffs following the expiration of the August 1 deadline. We then assess major international and domestic developments impacting financial markets, including the ongoing legal challenges to the president’s tariff authority in federal… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 31, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment opens with an analysis of the latest trade agreements, paying close attention to the strategic use of tariffs and their broader implications. We then examine key international and domestic developments shaping financial markets, including insights on the Federal Reserve’s recent… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 30, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment begins with an assessment of the current FOMC meeting, focusing on the potential timing of interest rate cuts. Additionally, we will explore a range of other impactful international and domestic developments influencing financial markets, including the latest in trade policy… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 29, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the latest US-China trade talks, which mostly aim to extend the current trade truce between the two countries. We next review several other international and US developments that could affect the financial markets today, including new signs… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of the Israel-Iran Conflict (July 28, 2025)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF During the night of June 13, an already unsettled Middle East was shocked to a new level of unrest when bombs from an Israeli airstrike rained down on Iran’s key nuclear and military facilities. In what proved to be the opening salvo of a 12-Day War, which included the… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 28, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the big news of a trade deal between the United States and the European Union. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including more trade tensions… Read More »