Research & News
Keller Quarterly (January 2024)
Letter to Investors | PDF About 125 years ago, a reporter spied J.P. Morgan on the streets of New York and ran over to get a prediction and a quote. “What will the stock market do?” the reporter asked the great banker and investor. “It will fluctuate,” was Morgan’s droll reply. The reporter dutifully reported… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – How Does Powell Define Restrictive Monetary Policy? (January 22, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Traditionally, the term “restrictive monetary policy” has been associated with a fed funds interest rate that is high enough to slow economic activity, but recent remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Powell suggest there may be a broader interpretation. Despite casting doubts on rate cuts just two weeks prior,… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – What If Russia Wins in Ukraine? (January 16, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF For the last two years, we’ve written a great deal about the evolving China-led geopolitical bloc and Beijing’s allies within it, including top partner Russia and other like-minded nations such as North Korea, Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela. We believe the geopolitical challenge to the United States and its allies… Read More »
The 2024 Outlook: Slow-Bicycle Economy (December 18, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Thomas Wash, Bill O’Grady, and Mark Keller, CFA Summary of Expectations | PDF The Economy Economic Growth We expect the U.S. economy to continue growing into 2024, but its momentum has been slowing, and slowing momentum will put the economy at increased risk of recession. As the growth rate continues to… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 14, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (N.B. The Weekly Energy Update is going on indefinite hiatus. Next year, look for a new report format.) Crude oil prices are continuing to break down despite OPEC+ efforts to restrain supply. Commercial crude oil inventories fell 4.3 mb compared to forecasts of a… Read More »