Research & News
Daily Comment (December 9, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Equity prices have tanked, and the U.S. dollar surged following the hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index report. Today’s Comment begins with discussing the effectiveness of price caps in deterring Russia’s war effort. Next, we examine some possible changes to inflation and… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 8, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with our thoughts about the deepening yield curve inversion and who stands to benefit. Next, we explain why we think major powers will look to make friends with commodity-rich countries. We end our report with a discussion… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 8, 2022)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Crude oil prices continue to come under pressure on worries over economic growth. (Source: Barchart.com) Crude oil inventories fell 5.2 mb compared to a 3.9 mb draw forecast. The SPR declined 2.1 mb, meaning the net draw was 7.3 mb. In the details, U.S.… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 7, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning, on this 81st anniversary of the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor. Only a few surviving servicemen will visit this site today, a reflection of the aging of the WWII generation. A 17-year-old serviceman in 1941 would be 98 today. In… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 6, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning on the Feast of St. Nicholas! It’s actually a rather quiet morning after yesterday’s risk-off day. U.S. equity futures have been vacillating this morning, mostly trading inverse the dollar. Gold is higher this morning, but oil is trading lower. Equities… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 5, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a long discussion of several key developments today in the global energy markets, including the implementation of several sanctions against Russia’s oil and natural gas due to its invasion of Ukraine. We next review a wide range… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Forecasting Financial Stress (December 5, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF [Note: The podcast that accompanies this report will be delayed until 12/12. Also, this report will go on holiday hiatus following today’s report; the next report will be published on January 16, 2023.] One of the challenges of market strategy is the problem of financial stress. In colloquial… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 2, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Howdy! Equities are down this morning after the jobs report soundly beat expectations, Today’s Comment begins with an overview of the recent sell-off in the U.S. dollar and what it means for financial markets. Next, we discuss the U.S. government’s efforts to… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 1, 2022)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with our thoughts about Wednesday’s speech by Fed Chair Powell. Next, we give an overview of China’s move away from its Zero-COVID policy. We end with international news focusing on the growing fractures within the Western alliance.… Read More »