Research & News
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Benjamin Button Dividend (September 16, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF A company’s journey to industry prominence typically involves several stages: launch, growth, shakeout, maturity, and decline. Historically, large capitalization stocks were often considered to be in the maturity stage of their development. Many investors therefore assumed that these companies had strong enough earnings to initiate or maintain dividend… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Prospects for the Dollar in a Fracturing World (September 9, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF As investment managers and strategists, we are often asked by clients about our outlook for the United States dollar. Very often, our clients have heard some worrisome news about a rival currency becoming more attractive than the greenback or global investors selling off the dollar because of economic or… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Activist vs. Accommodative Treasury Issuance (August 26, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The Federal Reserve and the US Treasury are independent government agencies with the shared objective of economic prosperity. While the Treasury manages government finances and executes fiscal policy, the Fed focuses on monetary policy as it aims to maintain price stability and full employment. Despite the Fed and… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Recent Iranian Election: Results & Implications (August 19, 2024)
by Daniel Ortwerth, CFA | PDF The Iranian political landscape experienced a major earthquake on May 19, when the country’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash on his return from a visit to neighboring Azerbaijan. Consequently, in June and July, Iran conducted a two-round presidential election with a surprising result. In a country… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Is the Sahm Rule Right? (August 12, 2024)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF While there has been some speculation that the US economy may be headed for a recession, one indicator suggests it has already begun. The “Sahm Rule,” a widely used metric for determining the early stages of recession, was triggered in July. Created by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The US Geopolitical and Economic Bloc as an Investment Region (August 5, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF More than a decade ago, we at Confluence began describing how United States voters have become more reluctant to shoulder the costs of global hegemony. We’ve shown how increased populist isolationism in the US and other Western nations helped embolden Chinese General Secretary Xi, Russian President Putin, and other… Read More »