Research & News
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Implications of the Iran-Saudi Arabia Détente (May 1, 2023)
Bill O’Grady | PDF In early March, China brokered a thaw between Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The two countries have been at odds for decades, even before the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Essentially, both nations believe themselves to be the rightful leader of the region. The nations had been allied during… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 1, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with several notes on the U.S. economy, including a new federal bank seizure and sale, and the risk of a writer’s strike in Hollywood. We next review a wide range of other U.S. and international developments with the… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 28, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with a deep dive into the GDP data and why we believe that the economy may still be headed for a recession. Next, we give our thoughts on the Bank of Japan’s recent policy decision. Lastly, we… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 27, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Today’s Comment begins with our thoughts about the positive news regarding Big Tech and why it may not relieve concerns about a possible downturn. Next, we discuss the controversy regarding regional banks and the Federal Reserve’s new lending facility. Lastly,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 27, 2023)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF After gapping two weeks ago, oil prices have filled the gap on worries about the global economy. (Source: Barchart.com) Commercial crude oil inventories fell 5.1 mb compared to the forecast draw of 1.5 mb. The SPR fell 1.0 mb, putting the total draw at… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 26, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! It’s a mixed market this morning after a rough day yesterday. The dollar and interest rates are lower, while S&P futures were higher but have seen gains erode as the morning wears on. In today’s Comment, we open with President… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2023)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our forecast includes a normal recession, likely beginning later this year. We also expect a recovery during our three-year forecast period. The path of the Fed’s monetary policy will have an outsized effect on markets. Though market expectations are varied, we expect a measured path for fed funds.… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 25, 2023)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a leading global investor’s view on the economic implications of climate change and the world’s responses to it (spoiler: the result is more inflation). We next review a wide range of other international and U.S. developments with… Read More »