Research & News
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We expect resilient economic growth in the short term, with slowing occurring toward the later end of the forecast period. Our three-year forecast does not anticipate a recession. Inflation rates will be volatile and are likely to remain above the Fed’s target rate. We anticipate the Fed will… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 29, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new developments related to Chinese artificial-intelligence firm DeepSeek and its market-disrupting new AI model. Importantly, new evidence suggests that DeepSeek’s success may have depended on stolen intellectual property from the US’s top AI developer. We next review… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 28, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a few observations on yesterday’s rout in Western technology stocks related to artificial intelligence. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including signs that China’s property… Read More »
Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Trump and the Political Economy of Alliances (January 27, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Now that President Trump is back in office, we think investors are about to see major changes in how the United States deals with the rest of the world. Trump, Treasury Secretary Bessent, and other key officials have signaled they will push to dramatically shift US policies on national… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 27, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a discussion of today’s rout in global technology stocks. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including more data pointing to sluggish economic growth in China… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 24, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new, market-driving statements by President Trump regarding global energy supplies and US tariff policy. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including new signs that Europe… Read More »
Keller Quarterly (January 2025)
Letter to Investors | PDF Here we are in 2025. I must admit that, growing up in the 1960s, I couldn’t even imagine what 2025 would be like. If I had tried, I probably would have had some science fiction-like expectation — that I’d be commuting to work in a flying car, that I’d have… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 23, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! The market is currently awaiting President Trump’s remarks at Davos. In sports news, Aryna Sabalenka is one step closer to becoming the first woman since 1999 to win three consecutive Australian Opens. Today’s Comment will discuss Argentina’s unwillingness to take… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 22, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! Markets are paying close attention to the new president. In sports, Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Bill Wagner were inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Today’s Comment covers Trump’s first few days in office, including his threats of… Read More »