Research & News
Daily Comment (January 13, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with a few words on the global bond sell-off, which so far this morning is still pushing yields higher. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets, including more… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 10, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! The market is reacting to the latest jobs data. In sports news, Real Madrid triumphed over Mallorca to advance to the final of the Spanish Super Cup. Today’s Comment will delve into the recent rise in UK gilt yields, explore… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 8, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Note: The Confluence offices will be closed tomorrow, January 9, for the Day of Mourning, and we will not publish a Daily Comment. Good morning! Concerns about the deficit and inflation continue to weigh on investor sentiment. In sports news, New Orleans… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 7, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our Comment today opens with new US moves to constrain the Chinese economy and military buildup. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets today, including some notes on yesterday’s resignation of Canadian… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 6, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Our first Comment of the New Year opens with the same old geopolitical tensions in Asia, this time with reports touching China, Taiwan, and Japan. We next review several other international and US developments with the potential to affect the financial markets… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 23, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Note to readers: the Daily Comment will go on hiatus after today’s Comment and will return on January 6, 2025. From all of us at Confluence Investment Management, have a Happy Holiday and a Happy New Year! Our Comment today opens with… Read More »
The 2025 Outlook: A Year of Political and Policy Change (December 20, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, Daniel Ortwerth, and Mark Keller, CFA Summary of Expectations | PDF The Economy Economic Growth We expect the US economy to keep growing throughout 2025, with no recession. However, current growth is only moderate, and because of elevated real interest rates and cooling labor demand, growth could… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 20, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning! The market is processing the latest PCE price index data. In sports news, Tottenham Hotspur defeated Manchester United to make it to the semifinals of the Carabao Cup. In today’s Comment, we will discuss why the government may be headed… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 19, 2024)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA, and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM ET] | PDF Good morning. The market is digesting the latest GDP data. In sports, Real Madrid secured its fifth trophy of the year by winning the FIFA Intercontinental Cup. In today’s Comment, we’ll analyze the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision, explore why long-term bond… Read More »