Asset Allocation Reports
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – An Update on Bonds (October 17, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Our starting point for examining bond yields begins with our yield model. The key components are fed funds, the 15-year average of CPI (which is a proxy for inflation expectations), the five-year rolling standard deviation of CPI (a measure of inflation volatility), German Bund yields, oil prices, the… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Gold Paradox (October 3, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Gold prices have been weak in recent months despite high levels of inflation. Gold is often considered an inflation hedge, and so the lack of strength is puzzling to many investors. In this report, we will take a look at gold and try to explain why prices have… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – #84 “The Federal Reserve’s Big Policy Mistake” (Posted 9/19/22)
Listen »Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Federal Reserve’s Big Policy Mistake (September 19, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF If you look at how stocks and other risk assets have lost value since Fed Chair Powell’s short, hawkish speech at Jackson Hole last month, it’s clear he has succeeded in resetting expectations for monetary policy. Investors now seem to accept that the Fed plans to hike interest… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Storm Warning (September 6, 2022)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Throughout this year, there has been much talk (and confusion) about recession. Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research is the formal arbiter of recession. This private group of economists assesses when there is a broad-based decline in economic activity and when that activity recovers. It then tells… Read More »