Asset Allocation Reports
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Navigating the Waves of BLS Revisions (August 18, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF The federal government’s economic reports are a valuable resource — timely, comprehensive, and generally recognized as unbiased. However, the data’s accuracy is a growing concern and has been exacerbated by pandemic-related distortions that are still largely unaddressed. We have always triangulated our analysis of government data with private data and… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – No Country for Recessions (August 4, 2025)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF Recessions in the United States have become less frequent over time. To illustrate this, the chart below shows data from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions in the US, which has been establishing business cycles since January 1854. In the chart, we show the total… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Stablecoin: Treasury’s Next Big Bet? (July 21, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Mounting national debt and tightening financing conditions are pushing the US Treasury to rethink traditional funding strategies, and stablecoins have emerged as an unexpected contender. Minutes from April’s Treasury Quarterly Refunding meeting reveal that officials are actively evaluating the use of stablecoins for buying US debt. This signals a strategic… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2025)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The likelihood of recession has declined during our three-year forecast period, as such we increased equity exposure. We anticipate below-trend economic growth due to persistent trade and fiscal policy ambiguity weighing on business investment, as well as consumer and investor confidence. Domestic equity exposure includes large and mid-caps,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Hidden Battle in the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” (June 30, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF Tucked within the (ironically named) One Big, Beautiful Bill Act lies a provision that could dramatically reshape international capital flows. Section 899, colloquially termed the “revenge tax,” would empower the federal government to impose escalating taxes on the US passive income of individuals and corporations in countries with tax policies… Read More »