Asset Allocation Reports
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Fourth Quarter 2025)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We expect no recession over our three-year forecast period, with GDP growth near trend, driven increasingly by business investment. Anticipated fed funds rate cuts will stimulate the economy and address weakening labor markets. Inflation is likely to remain around 3%, above the Fed’s long-term target. Passive flows continue… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Debasement Hedge: A Tale of Two Safeties (October 20, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF The surge of gold past the $4,000-per-ounce level in October marks a definitive pivot in market behavior. Unlike past rallies driven by stock market fear, the current move is distinctly characterized by a structural rotation away from sovereign debt and toward tangible assets. This is not a simple risk-off move.… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The AI Arms Race: Navigating the Divide Between Promise and Profit (October 6, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF AI is arguably the most exciting investment story of our time, with discussions swirling around its potential to create new businesses, boost productivity, and drive unprecedented revenue growth. This excitement has fueled massive spending as tech firms race to capitalize on the technology’s promise. As the hype has intensified, however,… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Stopping the Bond Vigilante: How Fiscal Dominance Is Reshaping Global Markets (September 22, 2025)
by Thomas Wash | PDF The bond bull market that began in the early 1980s lasted nearly four decades. Its longevity was largely built on the assumption that governments would always prioritize the health of their bond markets, even if it meant imposing economic pain on their own countries. This thinking fostered the legend of… Read More »
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Cap-Weighted and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 (September 8, 2025)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF There are many ways to describe the strong performance in large cap US stock prices this year. You could simply call it a bull market, with the S&P 500 total return index up 31.2% since its low in early April and up 11.5% year-to-date. The strong buying pressure could… Read More »