Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Venezuelan Migration Crisis: Part II (September 24, 2018)

by Bill O’Grady

Last week, we discussed Venezuela’s economic and political situations.  Part II begins with a discussion on migration with a focus on emigrant flows.  We include an analysis of the problems caused by migration followed by an examination of the possible end to this crisis and the broader geopolitical issues.  As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.

The Migration
The total number of Venezuelans that live abroad is estimated to be between 4.0 and 4.5 million,[1] roughly 13.5% of the country’s total population, suggesting that Venezuela has seen steady outflows due to the turmoil that Chavez’s revolution brought to the economy and political system.  Since 2015, the International Organization for Migration estimates that 2.3 million Venezuelans have migrated, representing about 7% of the population.  Surveys suggest that 54% of remaining upper income Venezuelans want to leave, while 43% of lower income citizens have the same goal.

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[1] https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/065-containing-the-shock-waves-from-venezuela.pdf, International Crisis Group, page 9.