Weekly Geopolitical Report – The TTIP and the TPP: An Update (October 17, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady

In January 2014, we first discussed the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).[1]  Both pacts have moved from obscure trade proposals to highly controversial political issues.  In this report, we will begin by discussing the nations involved.  We will examine overall details of the proposals, focusing on how they are different from traditional trade agreements.  From there, we will present an analysis of the controversy surrounding these proposals.  A look at the geopolitical aims of the agreements will follow and the likelihood that these treaties will be enacted.  As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.

The TTIP and the TPP
The TTIP will include the U.S. and all the nations of the EU.[2]  The TPP, which initially started with four nations, Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore, has expanded to 12 nations.[3]  Taiwan expressed interest in the TPP last year, but it is unclear whether the current configuration is comfortable with engaging in the age-old dispute over Chinese sovereignty.  South Korea has also decided to hold talks about joining the TPP group.  Conspicuous in its absence is China.

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[1] See WGR, The TTIP and the TPP, 1/27/2014.

[2] Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the U.K.

[3] Australia, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, U.S., Vietnam, Chile, Brunei, Singapore and New Zealand.