Weekly Geopolitical Report – Trump’s Foreign Policy in a Second Term (August 31, 2020)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF

(As is our custom, we will take a break for the Labor Day holiday. The next report will be published on September 7, 2020.)

In our WGR last week, we examined how U.S. foreign policy might look in the event that Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden wins the November presidential election.  But, of course, the race remains competitive, and there is plenty of time for things to swing either way.  In our report this week, we examine how foreign policy might look if President Trump wins a second term.

It’s tempting to think a second term would be a mere continuation of Trump’s first four years.  In reality, it could differ significantly.  Presidents in their second terms often rely on different advisors than they did when they first came to power.  They’re also lame ducks from their reelection onward, so they have less power.  On the other hand, since they no longer need to worry about the next election, they can feel less constrained and anxious to build their legacy.  The result could be a noticeably different foreign policy from 2021 to 2025, with important ramifications for investors.

Read the full report