Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Evolution of IS (December 7, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady

An Islamic State (IS) affiliate downed Russian Metrojet Flight 9268 in October.  In November, IS-affiliated terrorists launched a series of attacks in Paris.  These two events suggest a significant change in the behavior of IS.  Prior to the Paris attacks, IS appeared to be focused on building a caliphate in Syria and Iraq.  The shift to terrorist acts suggests a new strategy.

In this report, we will recap the two strategies radical jihadists have employed against the West, highlighting the differences between al Qaeda and IS.  We will examine the current stalemate that exists in the area IS currently controls and how IS may adjust its future strategy.  As always, we will conclude with potential market effects.

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