Weekly Geopolitical Report – Renewed Fighting in Idlib (March 16, 2020)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA

When financial markets get caught up in a crisis like the ongoing coronavirus panic, one underappreciated risk for investors is that they can get too distracted to notice other, longer-term problems that might be brewing.  That’s why we take such a disciplined approach to monitoring geopolitical, economic, social and market events all around the world.  While we continue working hard to understand the coronavirus epidemic and anticipate its trajectory, we’re also paying close attention to the latest flare up in the Syrian civil war.

In this week’s report, we discuss the Syrian government’s effort to finish off the last remaining rebels in the northwest part of the country, and we show why Turkey recently launched a counteroffensive against that effort.  We explain what the various players in the drama are hoping to achieve and how their actions could draw in outside forces like Russia and the U.S.  Importantly, we also discuss how the situation could produce another destabilizing migrant crisis for the Europeans.  As always, we conclude with investment implications.

View the full report