by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez  | PDF

Here at Confluence, we have long conducted deep analysis of the world’s geopolitical landscape to better understand the global investment environment and craft our investment strategies. A big part of our analysis is to understand which country is currently the global “hegemon,” i.e., the big, strong, dominant nation that serves as the global leader, takes the lead in providing international security, and provides the reserve currency.

We avidly subscribe to “hegemonic stability theory,” which teaches that the world has typically been more peaceful and prosperous when there is a functioning hegemon. The theory teaches that the world has often suffered more frequent wars and economic disruptions when there is no functioning hegemon, or when the reigning hegemon is challenged by an upstart. In this report, we offer some new thinking on that theory and examine its implications for investment strategy.

Read the full report

Note: The accompanying podcast for this report will be delayed until later in the week.