by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team  | PDF

As the first half of 2025 draws to a close, we typically update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for the rest of 2025. The report is not designed to be exhaustive. Rather, it focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we think will affect policy and markets going forward. Our issues are listed in order of importance.

Issue #1: US-China Tensions Remain

Issue #2: Russian-Ukraine War Continues

Issue #3: Fallout From Israel-Iran War

Issue #4: US Mulls Capital Controls

Issue #5: Prospects for Lasting Economic Change in Europe

Issue #6: AI Investing Gets Second Wind

Read the full report

The podcast episode for this particular edition will be posted under the Confluence of Ideas series later in the week.