Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of the New US National Security Strategy (January 12, 2026)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF
As required by law, the new United States administration released its updated National Security Strategy in December 2025 (NSS 2025). As many observers have noted, the document marks a dramatic shift from the traditional NSS documents of the Cold War and the Globalization eras, not only in terms of threat assessments and priority initiatives, but also in terms of length, tone, and focus. In this report, we drill down to the investment implications of the new strategy if it is implemented as written. Our bottom-line assessment is that the new strategy could lead to significant changes in the global security environment, which in turn portends big potential changes in the global investment environment as well. The new strategy could mean significant shifts in global trade and investment flows, in the nature and origin of investment risks, in the policy responses that might be expected in a crisis, and among the most important policymakers worldwide.
Since we at Confluence have long tracked the evolving geopolitical landscape and identified many of the changes now incorporated in NSS 2025, we have been ahead of the game in adjusting our global strategies. Many of the investment implications we identify here are consistent with the ideas we have presented previously, such as a trend toward fracturing and disintegration among the nations of the world, less efficient trade and investment flows, and increased risk of conflict. In this report, we also offer several new ideas that complement these observations.