Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of Changing Demographics: Part III (March 2, 2020)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA

In Part I of this report, we looked at current key global population trends.  The report discussed how plunging birth rates have been weighing on population growth and boosting average ages all over the world, with a potentially huge impact on the distribution of geopolitical power, economic prospects and future investment returns.  In Part II, we showed how these demographic trends are playing out for the world’s sole superpower and most important economy: the United States.

This week, in the final segment of this report, we’ll dive deeper into the economic implications of slowing population growth and an aging population.  Our analysis will show that these demographic trends are likely to weigh heavily on future economic growth and inflation.  The trends may well impact standards of living and constrain monetary and fiscal policy in important ways.  We’ll conclude with a discussion of the long-term ramifications for investors, although it’s important to remember that many other forces can have a greater impact on investment returns in the short term.

View the full report