Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment Implications of Changing Demographics: Part II (February 24, 2020)

by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA

In Part I of this report, we looked at current key global population trends.  The report showed how plunging birth rates have been weighing on population growth and boosting average ages all over the world, potentially having a huge impact on the distribution of geopolitical power, economic prospects and future investment returns.  An important countertrend is that urbanization is accelerating, with city populations growing relatively faster while rural populations stagnate or decline.  Part I noted that stronger innovation and productivity could help offset the negative impact of slowing population growth and population aging, but the world’s education systems are not rising to the occasion so far.

This week, in Part II, we will show how these demographic trends are playing out for the world’s sole superpower and most important economy: the United States.  Part III will dive deeper into the economic impact of slowing population growth and population aging, and, as always, conclude with a discussion of the ramifications for investors.

View the full report