Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Cuban Thaw (January 5, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady
On Wednesday, December 17, 2014, President Obama surprised the country by announcing a prisoner exchange and negotiations to begin establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba. Given that the Eisenhower administration broke off diplomatic relations with Cuba in January 1961, even considering resuming relations is a major change in policy. In this report, we will discuss the importance of Cuba to the geopolitics of the U.S and offer a short history of the island along with a summation of the lessons of that history. We will analyze the limits of the current thaw and why this attempt at rapprochement is occurring now. As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.