by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF
As regular readers of this report will know, Confluence has long predicted that as the United States steps back from its traditional role as global hegemon, the world will become much less globalized and countries will coalesce into at least two rival geopolitical and economic blocs—one led by the U.S. and one led by China. In our report from May 9, 2022, we described the results of our recent study that aimed to predict which countries will end up in each of the evolving blocs. Following that, in our report from June 6, 2022, we showed how key mineral commodities are unevenly distributed among the evolving blocs, and what that might mean for geopolitics and investment strategy.
In this report, we dive even deeper into the differences between the evolving blocs by looking closely at the international trade in key agricultural commodities within and between the groups. We explore what those differences and relationships might mean for geopolitics going forward, especially regarding the rivalry between the U.S. and China. We conclude with a discussion of the implications for investors.