Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – El Niño Update (September 28, 2015)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA Meteorologists have been calling for an El Niño event since last year. Current forecasts place the likelihood of an El Niño occurrence this winter at over 90%. Now, talk has turned from the likelihood of an El Niño to whether the abnormal weather pattern event will be super-sized or monster-sized. Water temperatures… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Meet Jeremy Corbyn (September 21, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady On September 12th, Jeremy Corbyn, a longtime Member of Parliament (MP), was elected as the new leader of the U.K.’s Labour Party. When he announced he would run in June, his candidacy for the position appeared laughable, but by the time the party election was held it was clear that Corbyn would… Read More »
Quarterly Energy Comment (September 3, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady The Market Over the past year, oil prices fell sharply into the first quarter, remained rangebound from January through March, rallied above $60 per barrel in the spring and early summer, and then slid to new lows in August. Recently, we have seen a sharp bounce in prices; in fact, it is… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Bremmer’s Choices (August 31, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we wrote our first formal book review as a Weekly Geopolitical Report. The book, Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World, is a recently published book by Ian Bremmer in which he discusses three models for American foreign policy. In our closing comments last week, we promised to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Book Review: Superpower (August 24, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady This is the first formal book review we have conducted as a Weekly Geopolitical Report, although we have leaned heavily on books or papers for much of the content in other reports. We believe this book is important because of its message and due to the proximity to the 2016 elections. Our… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Donald and Bernie (August 17, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady In the spring of 2014, we wrote a series of Weekly Geopolitical Reports that looked at the 2016 elections. In these reports, we described the economic and political environment that had the potential to make the 2016 election historically important. The emergence and remarkable staying power of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Turkey’s Predicament (August 10, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady In 2013, we wrote a WGR that looked at Turkey’s likely rise to regional hegemon status. In that report, we made the case that Turkey was well positioned to return to its historic status as a dominant regional power. This remains our view over the next few decades. However, in the near… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on the Iran Deal (August 3, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady Last month, the P5+1[1] and Iran concluded negotiations on a nuclear deal. In this report, we will offer some reflections on the agreement, including why it occurred, and the major reason why the U.S. negotiated this agreement and the underlying issues. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications. View the full report… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Laudato Sí (July 27, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, the Vatican held a meeting of the mayors of some of the world’s largest cities to discuss climate change. This meeting was part of Pope Francis’s efforts to add to the discussion of climate change, which was the subject of a recent encyclical, Laudato Sí. In this report, we will… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Imperial Germany (July 20, 2015)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we analyzed the Greek/Eurozone negotiations using game theory as an explanatory tool. In this report, we will review the basic geopolitics of Europe, the political response and the evolution of the Eurozone. Using this background, we will examine Germany’s actions in the most recent Greek crisis. As always, we will… Read More »