Research & News
Daily Comment (March 8, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Global equity markets are taking a breather today after an impressive rally. Commodity prices have been rallying as well. As noted below, China’s trade data came in a bit sloppy, with exports down 25.4% from last year. However, all Chinese data is difficult to read in… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Iranian Elections (March 7, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady On February 26, Iran held two elections, one for parliament and the other for the Council of Experts. The former is Iran’s legislative body, and the latter is the part of government that monitors the Supreme Leader and selects his replacement if he dies, becomes incapacitated or is removed. Since the 1979… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 7, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There are two issues we want to discuss this morning, China and monetary policy as it relates to Friday’s employment report. China: The National People’s Congress meetings began on Saturday and a clear signal is being sent—restructuring is being put on the back burner and the… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 4, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] BREAKING NEWS: Former Brazilian President Lula has been detained for questioning in an investigation of corruption. So far, he has not been arrested. Interestingly enough, it’s “risk on” with Brazilian assets, the BRL is advancing and Brazilian equities are rallying. This reaction may be due to… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 3, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] U.S. commercial crude oil inventories jumped 10.4 mb for the week ending 2/26, well above forecast. Current stockpiles remain at 80+ year highs. We are only 21 mb below the all-time high and there is a very good chance we will make a new high in… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 2, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Super Tuesday didn’t bring too many surprises. Donald Trump and Sen. Clinton both won the majority of states but, with proportional delegate distribution, all the candidates still running gathered at least a few delegates. Soon we will shift to winner-takes-all voting, which should accelerate the process… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 1, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s “Super Tuesday,” perhaps the most important date on the primary calendar. By tomorrow morning, we should have a fairly good idea of who will be the candidates from both parties. Polls suggest that it will be Trump versus Clinton for November. It probably won’t be… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Brexit (February 29, 2016)
by Kaisa Stucke, CFA The U.K. joined the European Common Market, what is now known as the EU, in 1973. In 1992, the Maastricht Treaty formally created the EU. However, as part of the treaty, the U.K. negotiated that it would be exempt from adopting the euro and joining the Eurozone. Despite the EU’s founding premise… Read More »
2016: An Update (February 24, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary: This report is an addendum to our original 2016 forecast. In our original 2016 Outlook, we forecasted a year-end S&P 500 of 2214.39, based on earnings of $121.67 and a P/E of 18.2x. As we will document below, we have revised our forecast to 2033.35, with… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2016 Election: An Update (February 22, 2016)
by Bill O’Grady Almost two years ago we published a series on the 2016 elections. In these three reports we suggested that rising discontent among the electorate could increase the odds of electing a president that may turn America away from the superpower role. Although there have been a number of surprises in the current nominating… Read More »