Research & News
Daily Comment (November 8, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There was a good bit of news overnight. Here is what we are watching: The message from the voters: Governor and downstate elections were held in Virginia and New Jersey yesterday. Although small sample size projections are the lifeblood of political punditry, we see three legitimate… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 7, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The overnight news was less active than the weekend but there’s still a lot going on. Here’s what we are watching: Saudi Arabia: We see two items of note this morning. First, the king has ordered banks to freeze the accounts of numerous Saudi nationals who… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Situation in Catalonia: Part I (November 6, 2017)
by Thomas Wash On October 27, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy triggered Article 155 of Spain’s constitution. This allowed him to dissolve the Catalan Parliament, also known as the Generalitat, and hold new regional elections on December 21, 2017. Tensions between the Catalan government and the Spanish government reached a boiling point following the Catalan government’s… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 6, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Oh my, it was a very busy weekend for news. Let’s dig in. Saudi Arabia: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) was a hub of activity. There were a few items of note. It appears that Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MbS) has engineered a massive… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (November 3, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee The 10-year Treasury yield has recently been trending upward. Since early September, yields have risen from 2.06% to 2.46%. What’s behind this rise and do we expect it to continue? We use our 10-year T-note model for guidance. It estimates the fair value level of the 10-year T-note yield based on the… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 3, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment data day! We cover the release in detail below but the quick read is that the report is relatively weak; payrolls rebounded sharply but below expectations, the unemployment rate fell largely due to a drop in the labor force and wages remained unchanged. Weather… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 2, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The overnight news was relatively light, but here are the events we’re keeping an eye on today: Changes at the Fed: Yesterday, the FOMC decided to maintain interest rates at their current levels but hinted at a possible rate increase in December. The Federal Reserve cited… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity markets have been fairly strong following relatively strong earnings and expectations surrounding the FOMC meeting today. The overnight news was relatively light, but below are a few topics that we are keeping an eye on today: Return of the ban? Yesterday, a driver in a… Read More »
Daily Comment (October 31, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Halloween! Financial and commodity markets are quiet this morning, awaiting the president’s pick for Fed chair (Powell is the consensus selection), the president’s trip to Asia and Friday’s employment report. Here is what we are watching this morning: The indictments: Although the indictments dominated the… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – North Korea and China: A Difficult History, Part III (October 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I of our report, we reviewed the Minsaengdan Incident and a broad examination of the Korean War. In Part II, we completed our analysis of the war, discussed the Kim regime’s autarkic policy of Juche and outlined the impact of the Cultural Revolution on North Korean/Chinese relations. This week, Part III… Read More »