Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Nationalism: Part I (August 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Over the last decade, the West has seen a series of tumultuous events. Of course, ten years ago the world was trying to cope with the Great Financial Crisis which raised fears of a repeat of the Great Depression. Although that outcome was avoided, deep underlying problems remain. Southern Europe faced a series… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 21, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Eclipse Day! Here are the news items we are following this morning: Afghanistan policy: Tonight, President Trump will present his policy on Afghanistan. Already we are seeing the impact of Chief of Staff (CoS) Kelly; so far, there have been no leaks of his plans. … Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 18, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee A number of market commentators have suggested current conditions are similar to 1987. Complacency, shown by the low level of volatility and an elevated P/E, is rampant. On the other hand, there is no evidence a recession is looming and, although monetary policy is tightening, the Federal Reserve has been raising rates… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 18, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Yesterday saw a selloff in U.S. equities. We are not seeing much of a recovery this morning. Here is what we are watching today: Barcelona: Using rented vans, a group of terrorists who claimed allegiance to ISIS tore through a tourist area of Barcelona, killing 14… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 17, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There is something of a negative tone to risk assets this morning but nothing that, so far, appears significant. Here is what we are watching today: ECB minutes: The main takeaway from the ECB minutes is that the recent rise in the EUR has caught the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 16, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Financial markets are quiet this morning, consistent with the late summer lull. However, there has been a lot of news flow. Here’s what we are watching this morning: Fallout from the president’s press conference: President Trump’s press conference yesterday was highly controversial and has given the… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 15, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Markets are calming down. Here’s what we are tracking this morning: North Korea blinks: According to numerous reports, the military leadership of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) offered plans to Kim Jong-un for a missile test around the U.S. territory of Guam. After reviewing… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Qatar Situation: Part II (August 14, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we discussed a short history of Qatar and its geopolitical imperatives. This week, we will analyze the events precipitating the blockade, the blockade itself, the GCC’s demands and the impact thus far on Qatar. We will examine how the situation has reached a stalemate and, as always, we will conclude with… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 14, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There was a lot of news over the weekend. Here is what we see as important: North Korea fears ease: Although worries remain about an escalation of tensions with North Korea, as we noted last week, there is no evidence of U.S. mobilization for an attack… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 11, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Although measuring “malaise” is more art than science, overall feelings of wellbeing or the lack thereof affect markets, politics, etc. One less common way to measure this is the ratio between discretionary spending compared to overall spending. Discretionary spending is defined as total spending less what is spent on food, clothing, energy… Read More »