Research & News
Daily Comment (March 12, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are flat this morning after a strong run yesterday. Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: In an 11th hour attempt to seal a deal,[1] PM May and EU Commissioner Juncker offered statements to clarify and ease the Irish backstop… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Modern Monetary Theory: Part I (March 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady In recent weeks, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has become a hot topic of discussion. Given the level of controversy, we want to provide our take on the theory. One could wonder if this topic is appropriate for a geopolitical report. We are using this report to examine MMT because, in our opinion, its… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equity futures are mostly higher this morning, although Dow futures are lower on the Ethiopian airlines crash.[1] Here is what we are watching this morning: Chinese trade: It appears the trade summit between China and the U.S. will likely be delayed, probably into April.[2] There… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (March 8, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee The Federal Reserve is experiencing a crisis of sorts. For years, policymakers have used the Phillips Curve as a guide to policy. The Phillips Curve postulates that there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Essentially, to quell inflation policymakers need to raise rates to create unemployment. The basic idea is that… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy employment Friday! We cover the data below but the quick read is that it’s mixed. The payroll data came in very weak (+20k vs. +180k expected). The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% from 4.0% last month, and wages rose more than expected. Market reaction… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are lifting on the back of the ECB. Here is what we are watching this morning: ECB: The ECB went a bit further than expected in its statement.[1] There was no change in the policy rate but the statement indicated there will be a… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 6, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s another very quiet news morning. Equity futures continue to struggle. Here is what we are watching this morning: BREAKING: The ECB is reportedly cutting its inflation forecasts through 2021. The reductions are said to be enough to allow the ECB to extend easy policy… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 5, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s a very quiet news morning. When the Chinese National Party Congress dominates the news, you can tell things are slow. Equity futures are steady after a drubbing yesterday. Here is what we are watching this morning: After the Chinese trade deal: Although negotiations continue,… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Irish Question: Part II (March 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady Last week, we examined the geopolitics of Britain and offered an abbreviated history of Irish/British relations. This week, we will begin by analyzing the Good Friday Agreement, followed by an analysis of Brexit regarding the Irish question. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications. The Good Friday Agreement By the late 1990s,… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 4, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Equities are moving higher this morning on hopes of a U.S./China trade deal. China’s National Party Congress begins on Wednesday and the ECB meets on Thursday. Here is what we are watching this morning: Chinese trade: It appears the U.S. and China are nearing a… Read More »