Research & News
Daily Comment (December 5, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Equity markets failed to hold yesterday’s tax adjustment gains. We are mostly marking time this morning. Here is what we are watching: Brexit problems: As we noted yesterday, it appeared PM May had resolved the Northern Ireland/Ireland border problem. Her plan was to keep Northern Ireland… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Moving Fast and Breaking Things: Mohammad bin Salman, Part II (December 4, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady Two weeks ago, we introduced this report and covered the mass arrests that took place in Saudi Arabia over the weekend of November 4, when several princes and notable figures were detained. The official reason given for the arrests was corruption, but many have speculated that the move was a cover for Mohammad… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 4, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] The big news is the tax reform bill passed by the Senate early Saturday morning. Market response has been as one would expect—equities are higher, Treasury yields are rising and the dollar is up. Here are the items we are watching this morning: Tax bill: Our… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 1, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee Given the length of the current expansion, there is growing concern about the economy’s ability to avoid recession. So far, none of our indicators suggests the economy is near a downturn. Of all the indicators we monitor, the yield curve is the most reliable; however, there are potentially dozens of iterations of… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 1, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There was a lot of overnight news, but below are the stories we are following today: Tax bill hits a snag: In an attempt to appease the deficit hawks, Senate Republicans have agreed to pare back $350 bn in tax relief. The two proposals being floated… Read More »
2018 Outlook (November 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary: Our baseline forecast for 2018 calls for no recession and real GDP growth of 2.25%, with faster growth in H1. Inflation should remain low, with the PCE staying under 2.0%. Labor markets will remain tight and wage growth will be constrained due to low inflation expectations.… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 30, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] There was a lot of overnight news, but below are the stories we are following today: Trade war with China? The U.S. has formally declined China’s bid to be treated as a market economy within the World Trade Organization (WTO). The move will likely heighten tensions… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 29, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Although yesterday was a news-heavy day, financial markets are relatively calm following North Korea’s missile launch and an upward revision to GDP. Below are the stories we are following: Nuclear North Korea: Yesterday, North Korea had its most successful missile launch and says it is capable… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 28, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Financial markets are relatively quiet this morning. We are watching the following news events: Senate tax bill: Today, the Senate’s tax reform bill awaits approval from the Senate Budget Committee. Although approval from the committee is usually a formality, there is growing speculation that the bill… Read More »
Daily Comment (November 27, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Financial markets are a bit weaker this morning—equities are signaling a softer open, while Treasuries have slightly rebounded. This morning we are focused on the following issues. Grand coalition in Germany? In order to form a government, the CDU has agreed to pursue a grand coalition… Read More »