Research & News
Weekly Energy Update (April 30, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market is showing signs of trying to consolidate in the mid-teens. Oil prices continue to be affected by ETPs. The most popular ETP for crude oil, the United States Oil Fund, (USO, 17.91), has changed its… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 29, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The uptick in the markets today comes as coronavirus lockdowns continue to be softened around the world and several drug groups say they could have a COVID-19 vaccine within months. The Fed ends its latest policy meeting today. Overseas, it’s still a… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 28, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Market sentiment continues to get a boost from the fact that many foreign governments and various U.S. states are easing their coronavirus restrictions. As always, we review all the latest virus news below. We also provide an update on the continued mystery… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Revisiting Scheidel’s Horsemen: Part II (April 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady In Part I, we introduced Walter Scheidel’s four horsemen and examined the impact of COVID-19 using his framework.[1] This week, we introduce the equality/ efficiency cycle and discuss the first issue that would be affected by the reversal of this cycle. COVID-19 and the Equality/Efficiency Cycle We postulate that economies pass through… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 27, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning and happy Monday! It’s central bank week; the BOJ has spoken, while the Fed and ECB meet later this week. Equity futures are pointing to another higher opening and there are widespread reports of nations easing social distancing measures. Oil… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 24, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve, we are watching to see how the disease will affect the economy longer term. Of course, projections of this sort are highly probabilistic; factors could and will likely emerge that could render these projections irrelevant. At the same, ignoring potential long-term consequences of the virus… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 24, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Equity futures are pointing to a modestly higher opening; oil prices are also higher. We update the COVID-19 news. Here are the details: COVID-19: The number of reported cases is 2,721,354 with 191,231 deaths and 745,605 recoveries. In the U.S.,… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! Ramadan begins this evening. Equities are steady this morning as financial markets digest historically weak economic data out of Europe. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to recover; we update our views on oil in this week’s Weekly Energy Update. We also… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 23, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Given the remarkable events of the past week, we are adjusting the usual format of this report. We[1] have been covering energy for over three decades and never imagined that we would see prices for actively traded futures fall into negative territory. The sharp drop in… Read More »