Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Could the Coronavirus Pandemic Break Up the EU? – Part II (April 6, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA (Note: Due to the Easter holiday, our next report will be published on April 20.) In Part I of this report we examined the history of the European Union (EU), how it works, and the political, economic, and social fissures that had already rendered it unstable when the COVID-19 pandemic took… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 6, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! Global equities are rising on hopes that the pandemic is stabilizing. We update the COVID-19 news. Here are the details: COVID-19: The official number of global cases is 1,280,046, with 69,789 fatalities and 265,462 recoveries. Here is the updated FT… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (April 3, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee Earlier this year and late last year we recorded a series of podcast episodes that examined the issue of making decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Episode #5 discussed the issue in broad terms, offering a general framework for examining such decisions. In the end, the key to making these decisions comes down… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 3, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Friday! It’s employment Friday, although this may be one of the most irrelevant reports ever. Since the survey is conducted around the 10th of the month, much of the jump in claims won’t be reflected in this report. But, our quick… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 2, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Good morning! After a drubbing yesterday, we are seeing a rebound in global markets this morning. One of the factors helping sentiment is a 10% jump in crude oil prices. The White House is continuing to talk to Russia and the KSA,… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (April 2, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA Crude oil inventories rose 13.0 mb compared to the forecast rise of 3.5 mb. In the details, U.S. crude oil production was unchanged at 13.0 mbpd. Exports fell 0.7 mbpd, while imports declined 0.1 mbpd. Refining activity fell 5.0%, well more than the 0.1% decline forecast. … Read More »
Daily Comment (April 1, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy April Fool’s Day! But please don’t expect any foolishness here! As always, we soberly review the latest U.S. projections on the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, which have rattled the markets so far this morning. We also note the Fed has… Read More »
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Second Quarter 2020)
The prospect of a recession in the U.S. is nearly a foregone conclusion. The depth will likely be severe, but the duration could be brief. Actions over the past two weeks by the U.S. Federal Reserve should help mitigate the economic crisis, potentially avoiding problems faced in past downturns. The stimulus package signed into law… Read More »
Daily Comment (March 31, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As March draws to a close today, we’re reminded of the old adage about the month: in like a lion, out like a lamb. After what we’ve all gone through during the last month, we certainly hope for a day that’s as… Read More »