Research & News
Asset Allocation Quarterly (Third Quarter 2020)
by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF We expect the current U.S. recession to be deep, yet brief, with a long period of recovery and the potential for expansion toward the latter portion of our forecast period. The Federal Reserve has stabilized the financial markets and ensured the continued functioning of the corporate debt market.… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 21, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF A new Confluence of Ideas podcast episode is available, titled “The 2020 Election: Part 3.” This is the final episode looking at the 2020 election. In this episode, we handicap the election based on the tools of prediction, polling and… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Threat of Militarization in Brazil (July 20, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF When investors think about Latin American politics and policy, the various countries’ military forces often come to mind. You’d almost think the region was a hotbed of international aggression, invasions, and state-to-state warfare. The reality is that for the last century, national military organizations in Central and South America… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 20, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday! Equity markets are mixed; the U.S. is modestly lower, while Chinese markets jumped on reports that insurance companies will be able to hold more stocks. Foreign news leads today’s report as the EU was unable… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Equity markets are modestly higher after a choppy week. The EU budget summit is underway. Relations between the U.S. and China continue to deteriorate. The new Asset Allocation Weekly is published below; the accompanying podcast and chartbook will… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (July 17, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF One of the burning issues about the current path of policy is its inflationary impact. In other words, will the massive increase in fiscal spending and the Fed’s balance sheet lead to higher price levels? To discuss this issue, we return to the equation of exchange: M x V… Read More »
Daily Comment (July 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! Global equity markets are lower this morning. Chinese stocks fell hard overnight but have been very strong recently. China’s GDP data came in stronger than forecast; we may be seeing a bit of “buy rumor, sell fact” behavior… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (July 16, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories reversed last week’s unexpected rise, with stockpiles falling 7.5 mb compared to forecasts of a 1.8 mb draw. The SPR added… Read More »