Research & News
Daily Comment (December 15, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Comment today opens with the latest coronavirus news. Some of that news is good, such as the first U.S. vaccinations and signs that at least a trimmed down pandemic relief bill is in the offing again. However, some of… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The 2021 Geopolitical Outlook (December 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last report of 2020; the next report will be published on January 11, 2021.) As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of… Read More »
2021 Outlook: The Recovery Year (December 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary: The economy is in recovery, but the expansion phase of the cycle (where economic output exceeds its prior peak) isn’t likely to begin until 2022. We look for weak first quarter growth followed by more notable strength for the remaining three quarters as the COVID-19 vaccines… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Monday! U.S. equity futures are higher this morning as vaccine distribution begins. The Electoral College votes today. There are two big items today—Brexit and the vaccine, so we lead off with those two categories. There was… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 11, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning and happy Friday! The lack of progress on a stimulus package, the potential for a government shutdown, and the increasing likelihood of a disruptive Brexit are all weighing on equities this morning. Accordingly, we lead off our coverage… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 11, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF After peaking at $2,063 in early August, gold prices fell to $1,760 at the end of November. This is a notable decline and, because our asset allocation models have included precious metals since 2018, it makes sense to see if anything has changed. We have several different ways to… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 10, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Good morning! The ECB met today and decided to increase its long-term bond purchases; the market’s initial reaction is hawkish. The EUR has rallied, and rates have lifted (albeit modestly). U.S. equity futures are mostly sideways this morning. There is… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (December 10, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. Prices are consolidating after the late November rally. Commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly jumped 15.2 mb when a 1.0 mb draw was expected. The SPR fell 0.1 mb; there is still 3.1 mb of storage in… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 9, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Our Daily Comment today opens with the latest coronavirus news. Importantly, the U.K. vaccinations yesterday turned up two negative reactions in people with allergy issues, but the news doesn’t seem to be undermining vaccine euphoria yet. There’s also a new… Read More »