Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Evolving U.S. Policy Toward China and Its Impact on Investors (August 10, 2020)
by Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Looking forward to the coming years and decades, today’s long-term investors face a stark question: will they be investing in a China-dominated world molded by authoritarian leaders in Beijing? Or, will they be investing in a more familiar, Western-dominated environment reflecting the historic leadership of the U.S. and incorporating… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 10, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF It’s Monday! Welcome back from the weekend. Equity markets are mixed. Foreign news leads off this morning as we cover the rise in unrest in Belarus, Lebanon, and Bulgaria. Policy news comes next, where we touch on the executive orders. … Read More »
Daily Comment (August 7, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF It’s employment Friday! We cover the data in detail below, but the quick view is that the data came in better than forecast. It’s a modest risk-off morning, with weaker Chinese stocks. Our leadoff this morning is China as tensions… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 7, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Investors often fall into the habit of sloppy thinking about government spending and its relation to the economy. For example, it’s easy to focus only on total government-sector expenditures. According to the White House Office for Management and Budget, total government outlays in the U.S. averaged 32.3% of nominal… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 6, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF It’s the 75th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima. U.S. equity markets are a bit weaker after a strong showing yesterday. We lead off with an update on policy progress (or lack thereof), followed by foreign news, with an update… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 6, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories fell more than anticipated, declining 7.4 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.5 mb decline. The SPR was unchanged this week.… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 5, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Moderating coronavirus infections in the U.S. and continued progress in vaccine and treatment studies are helping buoy risk assets so far today, despite a major explosion in Beirut that initially raised fears of terrorism. Another important positive today is that… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 4, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Despite the mixed performance for equities so far today, reports are showing a moderation in new U.S. coronavirus infections, as well as hints of progress in the negotiations for a new virus relief bill in Congress. As always, we review… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Rethinking China: Part II (August 3, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF In Part I, we described China’s situation using Japan as a historical analog. This week, we will complete the analogy and examine in some detail the potential motivations of Chinese and U.S. policymakers. As always, we will conclude the discussion with potential market ramifications. China’s Situation Similar to Japan in… Read More »