Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – An Inflection Point in Lebanon (August 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady | PDF On the afternoon of August 4, there was a massive explosion at the Port of Beirut. The explosion was one of the largest non-nuclear blasts in history, a seismic event with a magnitude of 3.3 on the Richter scale. At latest count, 220 have been confirmed dead, 110 are missing,… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 17, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Happy Monday. Equity markets are higher this morning as the S&P 500 slowly trends toward a new high. Foreign news leads off our comments this morning, with a special focus on Belarus. China news is next, followed by market and… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 14, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Happy Friday! It looks like a risk-off morning. Foreign news is the opening focus—the U.S. has engineered the UAE’s recognition of Israel, only the third nation in the region (Jordan and Egypt are the others) to grant formal recognition. China… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (August 14, 2020)
by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Precious metals prices have risen recently, making new highs. This is a monthly chart for the nearest gold futures contract. As the chart shows, we have recently moved above the 2011 highs. In this report, we will discuss two areas that have supported this rise—the prevalence of negative real… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 13, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF The summer doldrums are upon us. Equity markets are mostly steady, with the dollar weakening. We detail the claims data below, but they are showing improvement. We lead with market and economic news this morning, followed by China. Foreign news… Read More »
Weekly Energy Update (August 13, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF Here is an updated crude oil price chart. The oil market has stabilized at higher levels after April’s historic collapse. Crude oil inventories fell more than anticipated, declining 4.5 mb compared to forecasts of a 3.7 mb decline. The SPR declined 2.2 mb as… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 12, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF The mixed-to-higher tenor of risk assets so far today is understandable given the mixed news on the coronavirus. U.S. infections continue to moderate, but there has been little discernible progress on a new pandemic relief bill. Separately, Joe Biden announced… Read More »
Daily Comment (August 11, 2020)
by Bill O’Grady, Thomas Wash, and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] | PDF Risk assets today are being buoyed by a continued moderation in U.S. coronavirus infections and hopes that the White House and congressional Democrats will return to the bargaining table to hash out a new pandemic relief bill. President Trump has… Read More »