Business Cycle Report (July 29, 2021)

by Thomas Wash | PDF

The business cycle has a major impact on financial markets; recessions usually accompany bear markets in equities.  The intention of this report is to keep our readers apprised of the potential for recession, updated on a monthly basis.  Although it isn’t the final word on our views about recession, it is part of our process in signaling the potential for a downturn.

In June, the diffusion index rose further above the recession indicator, signaling that the recovery continues. In the financial markets, a sharp rise in inflation expectations led to a modest sell-off in equities in the middle of the month. Meanwhile, construction and manufacturing activity slowed as increasing costs for materials are becoming a problem for homebuilders and factories. Lastly, the labor market remains strong as payrolls rose at the fastest pace in 10 months. As a result, eight out of the 11 indicators are in expansion territory. The diffusion index rose from +0.3939 to +0.4545, above the recession signal of +0.2500.

The chart above shows the Confluence Diffusion Index. It uses a three-month moving average of 11 leading indicators to track the state of the business cycle. The red line signals when the business cycle is headed toward a contraction, while the blue line signals when the business cycle is headed toward a recovery. On average, the diffusion index is currently providing about six months of lead time for a contraction and five months of lead time for a recovery. Continue reading for a more in-depth understanding of how the indicators are performing and refer to our Glossary of Charts at the back of this report for a description of each chart and what it measures. A chart title listed in red indicates that indicator is signaling recession.

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