by the Confluence Macroeconomic Team | PDF
As the first half draws to a close, we typically update our geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year. This report is less a series of predictions than it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we think will dominate the international landscape for the rest of 2026. The report is not designed to be exhaustive. It focuses on the “big picture” conditions that we think will affect policy and markets going forward. We list the issues in order of importance.
Issue #1: Sea Lanes and Hegemony
Issue #2: Re-industrialization or Reserve Currency Status
Issue #3: The Donroe Doctrine
Issue #4: AI’s Non-Laissez-Faire Effect
Issue #5: Russia Falters in Its War Against Ukraine
Issue #6: Quantum Computing and the Next Technological Arms Race
Read the full report
Don’t miss our accompanying podcast for this report, which will be published as a Confluence of Ideas podcast later in the week. It will be available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify
These reports were prepared by Confluence Investment Management LLC and reflect the current opinion of the authors. Opinions expressed are current as of the date shown and are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change. This is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Information provided in this report is for educational and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as individualized investment advice or a recommendation. Investments or strategies discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial circumstances.
