by Bill O’Grady | PDF
On February 24, Russian forces entered Ukraine. Despite warnings from U.S. intelligence about an invasion, the general consensus was that Moscow was merely threatening to act. Thus, when Russia invaded, Europe was mostly caught by surprise. Much of what followed was also unexpected.
As we reach the six-month mark of the conflict, we believe it’s worth taking some time to discuss what has surprised us about the war so far, some of the key risks going forward, and the most likely outcome of the conflict. We will also touch on the lasting changes this war will cause and one important narrative that will likely lose its power. We will close with our usual look at market ramifications.
View the full report
Note: There is no accompanying Geopolitical Podcast this week.
Previous episodes are always available on our website and most podcast platforms: Apple | Spotify | Google
These reports were prepared by Confluence Investment Management LLC and reflect the current opinion of the authors. Opinions expressed are current as of the date shown and are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change. This is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Information provided in this report is for educational and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as individualized investment advice or a recommendation. Investments or strategies discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial circumstances.
