Research & News
Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Iranian Protests (January 8, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, our next report will be published January 22, 2018.) In early December, small protests developed in parts of Iran due to sharp increases in some food prices. By the last week of 2017, the protests had spread across the country and have continued into the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 8, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy Monday! We may be on a path to the first down day of the year for equities, although it is obviously early. Here is what we are noting this morning: Abandoning the Palestinians: We have always believed that the Palestinian cause was more for show… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 5, 2018)
by Asset Allocation Committee Equity markets had a very strong 2017, with the S&P 500 up over 20% for the year. Earnings rose more than expected, the economy continued to expand and investor sentiment was buoyant, all of which contributed to rising equities. The tax bill, signed in late December, will give equities a lift going… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 5, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Happy employment day! We show all the details below but the quick analysis is that the report was a bit soft; payrolls came in below forecast and wage growth remains tepid. The report was dollar bearish, Treasury bullish and neutral for equities. Here is what we… Read More »
2018 Outlook: Addendum (January 4, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady & Mark Keller | PDF Summary: When we wrote our 2018 Outlook, we were unable to take into account the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017[1] because the legislation had not been signed by the time we published our report. This Addendum will address the impact of the tax bill on… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 4, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] It’s a rather quiet morning. Here is what we are following: Economic momentum is rising: The ISM manufacturing index continued to hold near the 60 mark, which is an unusually high level. The ISM manufacturing index exceeds 59.0 only 17% of the time. Equally impressive is… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 3, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] U.S. equities appear poised to grind higher. Here is what we are watching this morning: Iranian update: Iran has seen six consecutive days of protests with 22 dead and over 450 people incarcerated. These protests are fundamentally different from the 2009 event we mentioned yesterday. First,… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 2, 2018)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] Welcome, 2018! Back to the salt mines. Here is what we are watching this morning: Iranian unrest: Civil unrest broke out in the major urban areas of Iran. The protests were widespread and have led to at least 22 fatalities so far. Iranians are angry about… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (December 22, 2017)
by Asset Allocation Committee (N.B. This will be the last Asset Allocation Weekly for 2017. We thank our readers and wish them a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. The next report will be published on January 5, 2018.) As equity markets continue to trend higher, there are always worries about how long the bull market… Read More »
Daily Comment (December 22, 2017)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EST] (Note to readers: The Daily Comment will go on hiatus next week after today; commentary will resume on January 2, 2018. From all of us at Confluence, thanks for reading! We wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.) The big news was from Europe. … Read More »