Research & News
Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2019)
Our expectations are that the U.S. economy will continue to grow, albeit at a more modest pace of 2.7% While we anticipate the current economic expansion will become the longest on record this March, the risk of a downturn rises toward the end of our three-year forecast period We expect the Fed to suspend its… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 15, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are roughly flat, giving up most of their overnight gains. Asia was higher on hopes of Chinese stimulus, but the big news is that today is Brexit Day. Here is what we are watching this morning: Brexit: So, it all comes down to… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Inflections: Part II (January 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady (N.B. Due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the next issue of this report will be published on January 28.) In Part I of this report, we discussed the issues surrounding predicting inflection points, which are defined as reversals of long-term trends. In this week’s issue, we will examine two long-term trends that… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 14, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s risk-off this morning. Global equities are lower on fears of a Chinese economic slowdown and on the U.S. government shutdown. Here is what we are watching this morning: China: December exports fell 4.4%,[1] well more than forecast, but imports fell even more, slumping 7.6%. The… Read More »
Asset Allocation Weekly (January 11, 2019)
by Asset Allocation Committee Does the Federal Reserve adjust policy for asset prices? This is perhaps one of the most controversial topics in U.S. monetary policy. Alan Greenspan faced this issue in the early 1990s. Both Volcker and Greenspan wanted to focus monetary policy on containing inflation. But, Larry Lindsey, a Fed governor at the time,… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 11, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are modestly lower this morning in a very quiet market. Yesterday, we started the day lower but moved higher. Although much of the rally was probably due to Chair Powell’s “patient” speech, it also points to a different market tone. Last month, rallies… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 10, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are lower this morning as the markets take a “pause to refresh.” Here is what we are watching this morning: Oh, that’s what you meant: The FOMC minutes were released yesterday and signaled a decidedly dovish turn in policy.[1] The text of the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 9, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are higher again this morning as the recovery continues. Here is what we are watching today: Shutdown: The president went primetime last night to make his case for a wall. The Democrats responded. Nothing has changed and the shutdown drags on. For the… Read More »
Daily Comment (January 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] U.S. equity futures are higher this morning as the recovery continues. Here is what we are watching today: Fed news: Atlanta FRB President Bostic suggested that the policy rate may be near neutral and perhaps only one more increase is needed.[1] Bostic has made it clear… Read More »
Weekly Geopolitical Report – Reflections on Inflections: Part I (January 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady History seems to move in broad cycles. Beliefs come into and fall out of favor. Despite evidence of these cycles, people tend to “forecast with a straight edge.” In other words, we assume trends that are in place will remain in place forever. And, thus, it can come as a shock to society… Read More »