Daily Comment

Daily Comment (May 19, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] The FOMC minutes were more hawkish than the market expected.  In fact, in the minutes, the members expressed concern that the financial markets are underestimating the likelihood of a rate move.  The committee felt that foreign risks have lessened and several suggested that the balance of… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 18, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There are two items of interest this morning, which are linked.  First, worries about the Fed moving rates higher are starting to rise.  Fed funds futures are now projecting a 12% chance of a hike in June.  Although this level remains low, it is up from… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 17, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] After a strong rally yesterday, we are seeing some consolidation this morning.  There is lots of news this week, with a full lineup of U.S. economic data today (see below), Fed minutes tomorrow and a G-7 meeting over the weekend.  The latter will be quite interesting. … Read More »

Daily Comment (May 16, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Oil prices are surging this morning as short-term outages dominate the news.  Conflict in the Delta region of Nigeria has reduced production by 0.6 mbpd.  Although Canadian production does appear to be returning, the recent outages will likely lead to inventory declines in the U.S. for… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 13, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted below, there was an interesting divergence between Q1 Eurozone GDP growth and German GDP growth.  The former was revised lower to 0.5% (2.0% annualized for the quarter), while German GDP was revised higher to 0.7% (2.8%) from 0.6% (2.4%).  Spain also grew strongly, up… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 12, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As expected, the Brazilian Senate voted 55-22[1] in favor of an impeachment trial against President Rousseff.  She will step down from power today and VP Michel Temer will take power.  A trial will be held over the next 180 days.  It ends with a Senate vote. … Read More »

Daily Comment (May 11, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As noted above, global equity markets are lower this morning in a quiet trade.  There wasn’t much news overnight and the trade looks like it is taking a breather today after a strong day in the U.S. yesterday. One market that had a strong day yesterday… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 10, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Although we are seeing higher equity markets in many parts of the world, there is a palpable air of uncertainty.  Take yesterday’s market action in Brazil.  The leader of the lower house in the Brazilian legislature announced yesterday that last month’s impeachment vote should be annulled. … Read More »

Daily Comment (May 9, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] There were five major news items over the weekend: Saudi Oil Minister al-Naimi sacked: Al-Naimi, who has been oil minister since 1995, was unceremoniously fired over the weekend, replaced with another Saudi Aramco official, Khalid al-Falih.  Al-Naimi was considered a good administrator and was the de… Read More »

Daily Comment (May 6, 2016)

by Bill O’Grady and Kaisa Stucke [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment data Friday!  We will update all the numbers below but the short summary is that the data was a bit soft.  Non-farm payrolls disappointed, and the unemployment rate fell only because the labor force contracted less than employment did in the household survey. Global… Read More »

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