Daily Comment
Daily Comment (May 9, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Trade concerns remain, while tensions with Iran increase. Here is what we are watching: China trade: Although Chinese negotiators are meeting with U.S. officials today, it appears we are heading toward tariffs at midnight EDT tonight. China has vowed to retaliate.[1] In a speech (granted,… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 8, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Risk-off continues. Tensions with Iran are increasing. South Africa holds elections today. Here is what we are watching: The Iran issue: SoS Pompeo abruptly canceled a meeting with German Chancellor Merkel and made an unannounced visit to Baghdad.[1] According to reports, he made the detour… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 7, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Trade tensions remain. Parsing the Iran threat. Here is what we are watching: Trade turmoil: So, is the tariff threat real or a bluff? Equity markets decided yesterday that it was more the latter than the former.[1] This morning, equity markets seem less convinced. This… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 6, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday as we clear out the “tequila cobwebs” this morning! Cyclone Fani made landfall over the weekend.[1] Ramadan begins.[2] Trade turmoil returns. It’s a massive risk-off day so far. Here is what we are watching: Trade turmoil: On Sunday afternoon, President Trump tweeted that,… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 3, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] It’s employment Friday! We cover the data in detail below, but the quick take is that it was a blowout report. Payrolls were well above forecast and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since December 1969. Here is what we are watching: Moore… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 2, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Some markets, notably China and Japan, remain closed for May Day. Here is what we are watching: The Fed: As expected, the FOMC left rates unchanged. The statement acknowledged the pickup in economic growth but tempered that positive comment by indicating that household spending and… Read More »
Daily Comment (May 1, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy May Day, the international Labor Day! It’s also Fed day. Here is what we are watching: The Fed: The president continues to press the FOMC to cut rates.[1] So far, his demands have not had much effect, although we can make a cogent case… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 30, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] As we bid goodbye to April, there’s a new emperor in Japan and the IS leader re-emerges. China’s PMI data (see below) came in a bit light.[1] On the other hand, Europe’s GDP came in better than expected.[2] Here is what we are watching: Spanish… Read More »
Daily Comment (April 29, 2019)
by Bill O’Grady and Thomas Wash [Posted: 9:30 AM EDT] Happy Monday! It was a cold weekend in the Midwest, with a late April snow for the upper parts of the nation’s midsection. It’s going to be a busy week, with the FOMC meeting and Japan’s Emperor Akihito taking the rare step of abdication tomorrow.[1] … Read More »