Asset Allocation Weekly

Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a weekly basis in a special section within our Daily Comment report, updating the piece every Friday.

Asset Allocation Weekly – Globalization Isn’t What It Used to Be (October 15, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, in such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep…But, most important of all, he regarded this state of affairs… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly – Has Bitcoin Become a Substitute for Gold? (October 8, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Over the last half-decade, one of the most dramatic developments in finance has been investors’ embrace of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.  Once considered merely an exotic technology with little relevance to investment portfolios, Bitcoin has now become a popular tool for investing.  One reason for its popularity is… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly – The Prices We Don’t See (October 1, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF For four consecutive months, consumer prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have risen 5% from the prior year. The pace of inflation has sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve may be wrong in describing inflation as being transitory. However, our research suggests there may be… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly – The Supply Side Worry on Inflation (September 24, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the 1970s, the U.S. had a serious inflation problem.  By the end of the decade, it had become the most critical economic policy issue.  Although inflation can be a complicated topic, one way of simplifying it is to see it through the intersection of aggregate supply and… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly – Don’t Call It a Comeback! (September 17, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Last week, the federal government’s enhanced unemployment benefits of up to $300 per week expired nationwide. It has been speculated that the end of these benefits could lead to a surge of new entrants into the labor market. However, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) suggests… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly – Powell and Fed Independence (September 10, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Chair Powell’s term as leader of the FOMC comes to an end in early February 2022.  It appears likely, at this time, that he will be reappointed for another four-year term.  Decision markets currently put the odds of another term at 85%.  Given all the policy actions that… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly – Are Strong Profits Sustainable? (September 3, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF (Note: due to the upcoming Labor Day holiday, there will not be an accompanying podcast episode this week.) With the first update of Q2 GDP, the Commerce Department released its corporate profits for the economy.  Using after-tax profits, which exclude inventory adjustment and depreciation, profits relative to GDP… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly – This Recovery is Different (August 27, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Since the Federal Reserve was granted independence in 1951 there have been 11 recessions.  Although each recession and recovery are somewhat unique, analysts tend to compare them for clues about future economic activity and policy actions.  In terms of monetary policy, Chair Powell has staked out a dovish… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly – The Impact of Older Americans on the Labor Market (August 20, 2021)

by the Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In analyzing the path for the economy, an important factor is separating the temporary effects of the pandemic from those that are longer lasting.  The debate over whether inflation will be transitory is tied to this determination.  The impact on the labor markets is another element.  One change… Read More »

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