Asset Allocation Weekly

Confluence Investment Management offers various asset allocation products which are managed using “top down,” or macro, analysis. We publish asset allocation thoughts on a weekly basis in a special section within our Daily Comment report, updating the piece every Friday.

Asset Allocation Weekly (December 4, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Over the decades, keen observers of the financial markets have developed a number of theories and strategies that serve as useful tools for understanding market dynamics.  One of the most famous such tools is the Dow Theory, which explains longer-term market movements based on the writings of Wall Street… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (November 20, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In the aftermath of the election and favorable news on vaccine progress, we have seen a notable backup in interest rates.  The 10-year T-note yield is flirting with 1%.  In this report, we will examine the future path of long-duration interest rates. We start with our 10-year T-note yield… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (November 13, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In our most recent Asset Allocation quarterly rebalance, we addressed the potential for election-related market disruption.  In the end, we made only modest defensive adjustments to the portfolios and instead focused our allocations on continued policy support and economic recovery.  In this week’s report, we will look at the… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (November 6, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF In his book entitled The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory, Milton Friedman states that, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in a sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” This sentiment shaped both… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (October 30, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Many investment managers think of “foreign equities” as one big, monolithic asset class and leave it at that.  When setting a portfolio’s asset allocation strategy, many simply assign a certain percentage to the asset class and implement it by investing in a broad international index fund.  Here at Confluence,… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (October 23, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The measures adopted to combat the spread of COVID-19 caused one of the most unusual recessions in American economic history.  Although all recessions have their own unique characteristics, the recession that began in February was historically deep; it is likely already over too, making it one of the shortest… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (October 16, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Of all the different economic indicators published by the government and private entities, one of the least followed, but potentially very enlightening, is the Census Bureau’s monthly report on business inventories.  The report tracks the value of inventories on hand each month at the retail, wholesale, and manufacturing levels… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (October 9, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF Later this month, the European Union will begin auctioning off bonds to facilitate its economic recovery from the pandemic. In all, the EU plans to raise up to €850 billion over the next 5-7 years, with €750 billion still awaiting approval from the European Parliament. If approved, as we… Read More »

Asset Allocation Weekly (October 2, 2020)

by Asset Allocation Committee | PDF The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg was yet another political shock for 2020 in a year rife with unusual events.  The year began with the first official case of COVID-19 in Washington State on January 20.  The pandemic and subsequent measures to contain the virus have led to unprecedented… Read More »

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