Weekly Geopolitical Report – Can Assad Survive? (May 4, 2015)

by Bill O’Grady

Since the beginning of the year, rebels in Syria have been making steady gains against forces loyal to the Assad regime.  Over the past six weeks, these gains have accelerated.  The recent rebel victories are raising questions about the Assad regime’s ability to survive.

In this report, we will recap the problems the Syrian government faces, including internal dissention and military losses.  We will discuss the growing evidence of a Turkey-Saudi axis that may be aiding the rebels to weaken or eliminate Assad and pressure Iran.  From there, we will examine the potential Iranian and American responses to the rebel gains and support from Riyadh and Ankara.  As always, we will conclude with potential market ramifications.

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